Football · Hungary NB III · 20/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Dabas vs III Keruleti TUE

Team pages: FC Dabas · III Keruleti TUE

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

FC Dabas1.5

III Keruleti TUE2.34

1X2

23% 22% 55%

FC Dabas Draw III Keruleti TUE

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Dabas 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWDLL

III Keruleti TUE 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

FC Dabas 0–4 III Keruleti TUE (4 last)

FC Dabas2-3III Keruleti TUE
III Keruleti TUE3-1FC Dabas
III Keruleti TUE6-0FC Dabas
FC Dabas1-3III Keruleti TUE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Dabas 1480 · III Keruleti TUE 1614

	FC Dabas	Draw	III Keruleti TUE
Our model	23%	21%	56%
Market	23%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours III Keruleti TUE (rating 1480 vs 1614).
H2H favours III Keruleti TUE: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Dabas	III Keruleti TUE
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	2.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	56/33/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.8	2.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.90

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:25 +16’	4.00	4.00	1.61
20:54 +6’	3.90▼	4.10▲	1.61
02:47 +6’	3.75▼	4.20▲	1.61
12:19 +6’	3.90▲	4.00▼	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dabas 0–0–4 III Keruleti TUE

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Hungary NB III	FC Dabas	2-3 HT 2-0	III Keruleti TUE
27/08/25 Hungary NB III	III Keruleti TUE	3-1 HT 0-1	FC Dabas
07/02/24 Club Friendly List	III Keruleti TUE	6-0 HT 1-0	FC Dabas
17/07/21 Europe Friendlies	FC Dabas	1-3 HT 0-3	III Keruleti TUE

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	8	8	0	0	30	3	24
2	III Keruleti TUE	7	6	0	1	13	3	18
3	Ujpest II	8	4	2	2	23	13	14
4	ESMTK	7	4	2	1	16	8	14
5	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	7	4	1	2	16	11	13
6	Szolnoki Mav FC	8	3	4	1	19	18	13
7	Csepel	8	3	3	2	19	14	12
8	Monori SE	8	3	3	2	18	14	12
9	Vasas SC II	8	3	2	3	18	11	11
10	FC Dabas	7	3	1	3	12	17	10
11	Kispest Honved II	8	2	2	4	15	12	8
12	Bekescsabai Elore SE	8	1	4	3	10	14	7
13	Hodmezovasarhelyi	8	1	3	4	10	19	6
14	BKV Elore SC	8	1	1	6	7	29	4
15	Sandorfalvi SK	8	1	0	7	5	27	3
16	Szegedi VSE	8	0	2	6	11	29	2

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Dabas

WWLLWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-2	0-5	0	4	L
30/08	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	7	2	W
12/08	Monori SE Hungary NB III	2-1	3-2	6	6	W
08/08	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
26/07	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
24/05	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
17/05	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	Martfui LSE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	–	–	W

III Keruleti TUE

WWWWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
30/08	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
26/08	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/08	Sandorfalvi SK Hungary NB III	–	3-0	–	–	W
12/08	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
09/08	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
25/07	Csepel Hungary NB III	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/05	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	2-2	6-3	–	–	W
17/05	ESMTK Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	2	8	W
10/05	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	0-0	3-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Dabas vs III Keruleti TUE?

According to our model, the most likely result is an III Keruleti TUE win (55%). Probabilities: FC Dabas 23%, draw 22%, III Keruleti TUE 55%.

How many goals are expected in FC Dabas vs III Keruleti TUE?

The model expects 3.84 goals (FC Dabas 1.5 · III Keruleti TUE 2.34), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Dabas vs III Keruleti TUE?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.