Football · Hungary NB III · 09/08, 17:30
Prediction: ESMTK vs Hodmezovasarhelyi
Team pages: ESMTK · Hodmezovasarhelyi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.72Total
ESMTK2.86
Hodmezovasarhelyi0.86
1X2
ESMTK
Draw
Hodmezovasarhelyi
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
ESMTK
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Hodmezovasarhelyi
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ESMTK
5–1
Hodmezovasarhelyi
(6 last)
- ESMTK4-0Hodmezovasarhelyi
- Hodmezovasarhelyi0-3ESMTK
- Hodmezovasarhelyi1-2ESMTK
- ESMTK2-1Hodmezovasarhelyi
- ESMTK0-2Hodmezovasarhelyi
- Hodmezovasarhelyi2-3ESMTK
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ESMTK 1597 · Hodmezovasarhelyi 1460
| ESMTK | Draw | Hodmezovasarhelyi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 82% | 12% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESMTK (rating 1597 vs 1460).
- H2H favours ESMTK: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ESMTK | Hodmezovasarhelyi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.1 | 3.3 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ESMTK 5–0–1 Hodmezovasarhelyi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Hungary NB III | ESMTK | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Hodmezovasarhelyi |
| 26/10/25 Hungary NB III | Hodmezovasarhelyi | 0-3 HT 0-1 | ESMTK |
| 18/08/24 Hungary NB III | Hodmezovasarhelyi | 1-2 HT 0-1 | ESMTK |
| 26/05/24 Hungary NB III | ESMTK | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Hodmezovasarhelyi |
| 13/03/22 Hungary NB III | ESMTK | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Hodmezovasarhelyi |
| 04/09/21 Hungary NB III | Hodmezovasarhelyi | 2-3 HT 0-1 | ESMTK |
Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ujpest II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Szolnoki Mav FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Szeged-Csanad Grosics II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Gyulai Termal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | III Keruleti TUE | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | ESMTK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Szegedi VSE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Vasas SC II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Bekescsabai Elore SE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Kispest Honved II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Monori SE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Csepel FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Sandorfalvi SK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | FC Dabas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 | Hodmezovasarhelyi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | BKV Elore SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | ESMTK | Hodmezovasarhelyi |
|---|---|---|
| III Keruleti TUE | 1-3 L | 3-6 L |
| Bekescsabai Elore SE II | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| BKV Elore SC | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Kispest Honved II | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Gyulai Termal | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Szegedi VSE | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Martfui LSE | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: ESMTK (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ESMTK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Monori SE Hungary NB III |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Tiszafoldvar Hungary NB III |
3-0 | 8-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III |
0-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Bekescsabai Elore SE II Hungary NB III |
0-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III |
4-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 05/04 | Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 29/03 | Martfui LSE Hungary NB III |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
Hodmezovasarhelyi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III |
2-2 | 3-6 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Bekescsabai Elore SE II Hungary NB III |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | ESMTK Hungary NB III |
0-0 | 0-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 05/04 | Martfui LSE Hungary NB III |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/03 | Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ESMTK vs Hodmezovasarhelyi?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ESMTK win (80%). Probabilities: ESMTK 80%, draw 13%, Hodmezovasarhelyi 7%.
How many goals are expected in ESMTK vs Hodmezovasarhelyi?
The model expects 3.72 goals (ESMTK 2.86 · Hodmezovasarhelyi 0.86), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in ESMTK vs Hodmezovasarhelyi?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.