Football · Hungary NB III · 17/10, 17:00

Prediction: Papai Perutz vs FC Tatabanya

Team pages: Papai Perutz · FC Tatabanya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Papai Perutz1.13

FC Tatabanya2.59

1X2

14% 17% 68%

Papai Perutz Draw FC Tatabanya

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Papai Perutz 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLDLWL

FC Tatabanya 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Papai Perutz 0–1–2 FC Tatabanya (3 last)

FC Tatabanya6-2Papai Perutz
Papai Perutz0-1FC Tatabanya
FC Tatabanya0-0Papai Perutz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Papai Perutz 1457 · FC Tatabanya 1594

	Papai Perutz	Draw	FC Tatabanya
Our model	14%	18%	68%
Market	15%	16%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tatabanya (rating 1457 vs 1594).
H2H favours FC Tatabanya: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Papai Perutz	FC Tatabanya
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	2.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	3.6 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.00

X5.50

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.82

2 (-1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:40 +18’	6.00	5.50	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Papai Perutz 0–1–2 FC Tatabanya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Hungary NB III	FC Tatabanya	6-2 HT 3-0	Papai Perutz
21/09/25 Hungary NB III	Papai Perutz	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Tatabanya
15/08/21 Hungary NB III	FC Tatabanya	0-0 HT 0-0	Papai Perutz

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, North West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dorogi FC	11	8	2	1	31	9	26
2	FC Tatabanya	11	8	2	1	28	8	26
3	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE	11	7	4	0	31	10	25
4	Sarisapi BSE	12	6	2	4	18	18	20
5	MTE 1904	12	5	4	3	19	13	19
6	Bicskei TC	11	6	0	5	26	23	18
7	SC Sopron	12	5	3	4	19	16	18
8	Komarom VSE	12	5	3	4	17	18	18
9	Puskas Academy II	11	5	1	5	24	21	16
10	Zalaegerszegi TE II	12	5	1	6	21	22	16
11	Györi ETO II	12	4	2	6	16	17	14
12	Veszprem FC	12	3	4	5	20	25	13
13	Papai Perutz	11	3	2	6	9	21	11
14	Kiraly SZE	12	2	4	6	16	25	10
15	Balatonalmadi SE	11	1	2	8	10	33	5
16	1908 SZAC Budapest	11	0	2	9	6	32	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Papai Perutz	FC Tatabanya
Bicskei TC	0-2 L	3-1 W
Puskas Academy II	0-5 L	4-0 W
Zalaegerszegi TE II	1-0 W	3-0 W
Komarom VSE	2-4 L	2-0 W
Veszprem FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
1908 SZAC Budapest	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Tatabanya (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Papai Perutz

WDLWLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bicskei TC Hungary NB III	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
03/10	Györi ETO II Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
27/09	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-4	3	4	L
19/09	MTE 1904 Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	Dorogi FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-5	2	7	L
26/08	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
15/08	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
12/08	Veszprem FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
08/08	1908 SZAC Budapest Hungary NB III	0-1	2-1	–	–	W

FC Tatabanya

WWDWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	1-0	3-0	7	7	W
03/10	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	0-0	2-0	5	13	W
26/09	1908 SZAC Budapest Hungary NB III	3-0	3-1	9	4	W
19/09	Veszprem FC Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	11	3	W
05/09	Kiraly SZE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Balatonalmadi SE Hungary NB III	1-0	4-0	6	7	W
26/08	Sarisapi BSE Hungary NB III	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
15/08	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/08	Bicskei TC Hungary NB III	0-0	3-1	3	3	W
09/08	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	0-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Papai Perutz vs FC Tatabanya?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Tatabanya win (68%). Probabilities: Papai Perutz 14%, draw 17%, FC Tatabanya 68%.

How many goals are expected in Papai Perutz vs FC Tatabanya?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Papai Perutz 1.13 · FC Tatabanya 2.59), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Papai Perutz vs FC Tatabanya?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.