Football · Hungary NB III · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Komarom VSE vs Sarisapi BSE

Team pages: Komarom VSE

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Komarom VSE1.63

Sarisapi BSE1.34

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Komarom VSE Draw Sarisapi BSE

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Komarom VSE 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLDWLL

Sarisapi BSE 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWDDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Komarom VSE 1487 · Sarisapi BSE 1522

	Komarom VSE	Draw	Sarisapi BSE
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	44%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Komarom VSE	Sarisapi BSE
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.4	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:19 +28’	2.05	3.60	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, North West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Tatabanya	11	8	2	1	28	8	26
2	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE	10	7	3	0	30	9	24
3	Dorogi FC	10	7	2	1	29	8	23
4	Sarisapi BSE	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
5	Bicskei TC	11	6	0	5	26	23	18
6	SC Sopron	11	5	3	3	18	13	18
7	MTE 1904	10	4	3	3	15	12	15
8	Komarom VSE	11	4	3	4	16	18	15
9	Györi ETO II	10	4	2	4	15	12	14
10	Puskas Academy II	10	4	1	5	19	19	13
11	Zalaegerszegi TE II	11	4	1	6	18	21	13
12	Papai Perutz	11	3	2	6	9	21	11
13	Veszprem FC	10	2	4	4	15	22	10
14	Kiraly SZE	10	1	4	5	11	19	7
15	Balatonalmadi SE	10	1	2	7	10	29	5
16	1908 SZAC Budapest	11	0	2	9	6	32	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Komarom VSE	Sarisapi BSE
SC Sopron	0-3 L	1-0 W
FC Tatabanya	0-2 L	0-3 L
Bicskei TC	5-4 W	3-2 W
Györi ETO II	1-1 D	3-2 W
Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE	0-1 L	1-2 L
MTE 1904	0-0 D	0-3 L
Puskas Academy II	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Komarom VSE

WWWLDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	0-0	0-3	1	9	L
03/10	FC Tatabanya Hungary NB III	0-0	0-2	3	13	L
26/09	Bicskei TC Hungary NB III	4-1	5-4	2	2	W
19/09	Györi ETO II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
06/09	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
29/08	MTE 1904 Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
26/08	Dorogi FC Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
15/08	Papai Perutz Hungary NB III	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
12/08	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
08/08	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-2	–	–	W

Sarisapi BSE

LWLWLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	1908 SZAC Budapest Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	Veszprem FC Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
26/09	Kiraly SZE Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
29/08	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/08	FC Tatabanya Hungary NB III	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
15/08	Bicskei TC Hungary NB III	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
12/08	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE Hungary NB III	0-2	1-2	2	3	L
08/08	Györi ETO II Hungary NB III	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
25/07	MTE 1904 Hungary NB III	0-1	0-3	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Komarom VSE vs Sarisapi BSE?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Komarom VSE win (43%). Probabilities: Komarom VSE 43%, draw 26%, Sarisapi BSE 31%.

How many goals are expected in Komarom VSE vs Sarisapi BSE?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Komarom VSE 1.63 · Sarisapi BSE 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Komarom VSE vs Sarisapi BSE?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.