Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: APLG Gdansk (W) vs Lech Poznan UAM (W)

Team pages: APLG Gdansk (W) · Lech Poznan UAM (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

APLG Gdansk (W)1.81

Lech Poznan UAM (W)1.37

1X2

47% 25% 28%

APLG Gdansk (W) Draw Lech Poznan UAM (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

APLG Gdansk (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWWWD

Lech Poznan UAM (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLWWLLLD

Head-to-head

APLG Gdansk (W) 1–1 Lech Poznan UAM (W) (2 last)

APLG Gdansk (W)2-1Lech Poznan UAM (W)
Lech Poznan UAM (W)2-1APLG Gdansk (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · APLG Gdansk (W) 1504 · Lech Poznan UAM (W) 1456

	APLG Gdansk (W)	Draw	Lech Poznan UAM (W)
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APLG Gdansk (W) (rating 1504 vs 1456).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	APLG Gdansk (W)	Lech Poznan UAM (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.5 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	33/0/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.99
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.73 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:31 +42’	1.91	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +65’	1.99	3.73	2.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · APLG Gdansk (W) 1–0–1 Lech Poznan UAM (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Poland Ekstraliga Women	APLG Gdansk (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Lech Poznan UAM (W)
31/10/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	APLG Gdansk (W)

Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Leczna (W)	5	5	0	0	16	3	15
2	GKS Katowice (W)	5	4	1	0	19	5	13
3	Pogon Szczecin (W)	6	4	0	2	15	7	12
4	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	4	3	1	0	13	3	10
5	APLG Gdansk (W)	6	3	1	2	8	8	10
6	Legia Warsaw (W)	6	3	0	3	14	17	9
7	AZS UJ Krakow (W)	5	2	1	2	6	9	7
8	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	5	1	1	3	7	14	4
9	Slask Wroclaw (W)	6	0	3	3	6	13	3
10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	6	0	3	3	6	15	3
11	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	5	0	2	3	2	10	2
12	Sleza Wroclaw (W)	5	0	1	4	4	12	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	APLG Gdansk (W)	Lech Poznan UAM (W)
Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
UKS SMS Lodz (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Slask Wroclaw (W)	2-1 W	2-2 D
Gornik Leczna (W)	0-2 L	0-3 L
GKS Katowice (W)	0-3 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: APLG Gdansk (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

APLG Gdansk (W)

LLWLLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
29/08	Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-1	2-1	6	2	W
22/08	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
16/08	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
08/08	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	–	1-2	–	–	L
02/08	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
30/05	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
24/05	Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	0	0	W
09/05	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
02/05	Stomilanki Olsztyn (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	1-3	5	1	L

Lech Poznan UAM (W)

DDLLWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-1	2-2	4	6	D
22/08	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
15/08	Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-3	3-4	5	2	L
08/08	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-5	6	1	L
01/08	Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
30/05	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
24/05	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	1-2	0	0	L
20/05	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-2	1-4	5	3	L
09/05	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
02/05	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	3-3	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in APLG Gdansk (W) vs Lech Poznan UAM (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a APLG Gdansk (W) win (47%). Probabilities: APLG Gdansk (W) 47%, draw 25%, Lech Poznan UAM (W) 28%.

How many goals are expected in APLG Gdansk (W) vs Lech Poznan UAM (W)?

The model expects 3.17 goals (APLG Gdansk (W) 1.81 · Lech Poznan UAM (W) 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in APLG Gdansk (W) vs Lech Poznan UAM (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.