Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 08/08, 10:30
Prediction: Pogon Szczecin (W) vs Gornik Leczna (W)
Team pages: Pogon Szczecin (W) · Gornik Leczna (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
Pogon Szczecin (W)1.71
Gornik Leczna (W)1.41
1X2
Pogon Szczecin (W)
Draw
Gornik Leczna (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Pogon Szczecin (W)
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Gornik Leczna (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pogon Szczecin (W)
5–1
Gornik Leczna (W)
(6 last)
- Gornik Leczna (W)0-3Pogon Szczecin (W)
- Pogon Szczecin (W)3-2Gornik Leczna (W)
- Gornik Leczna (W)1-0Pogon Szczecin (W)
- Pogon Szczecin (W)5-2Gornik Leczna (W)
- Pogon Szczecin (W)2-1Gornik Leczna (W)
- Gornik Leczna (W)0-3Pogon Szczecin (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pogon Szczecin (W) 1586 · Gornik Leczna (W) 1524
| Pogon Szczecin (W) | Draw | Gornik Leczna (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pogon Szczecin (W) (rating 1586 vs 1524).
- H2H favours Pogon Szczecin (W): 5-0-1.
- High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pogon Szczecin (W) | Gornik Leczna (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.1 / 8.4 | 2.3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pogon Szczecin (W) 5–0–1 Gornik Leczna (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Gornik Leczna (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Pogon Szczecin (W) |
| 02/11/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Pogon Szczecin (W) | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Gornik Leczna (W) |
| 02/03/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Gornik Leczna (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Pogon Szczecin (W) |
| 10/08/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Pogon Szczecin (W) | 5-2 HT 3-1 | Gornik Leczna (W) |
| 28/04/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Pogon Szczecin (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Gornik Leczna (W) |
| 07/10/23 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Gornik Leczna (W) | 0-3 | Pogon Szczecin (W) |
Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | GKS Katowice (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Gornik Leczna (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Legia Warsaw (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 7 | Slask Wroclaw (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 | APLG Gdansk (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Sleza Wroclaw (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pogon Szczecin (W) | Gornik Leczna (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Pogon Tczew (W) | 3-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | 2-2 D | 1-4 L |
| GKS Katowice (W) | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Lech Poznan UAM (W) | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| AZS UJ Krakow (W) | 6-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Pogon Szczecin (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pogon Szczecin (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 23/05 | Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Pogon Tczew (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-4 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 21/04 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Cup Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 01/04 | Lech Poznan UAM II (W) Poland Cup Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
5-0 | 6-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
Gornik Leczna (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Pogon Tczew (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
4-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/04 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 01/04 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Cup Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Stomilanki Olsztyn (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/03 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pogon Szczecin (W) vs Gornik Leczna (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pogon Szczecin (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Pogon Szczecin (W) 44%, draw 26%, Gornik Leczna (W) 31%.
How many goals are expected in Pogon Szczecin (W) vs Gornik Leczna (W)?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Pogon Szczecin (W) 1.71 · Gornik Leczna (W) 1.41), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin (W) vs Gornik Leczna (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.