Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 16/08, 11:00

Prediction: GKS Katowice (W) vs Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

Team pages: GKS Katowice (W) · Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

GKS Katowice (W)1.59

Czarni Sosnowiec (W)1.96

1X2

30% 24% 45%

GKS Katowice (W) Draw Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

GKS Katowice (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

GKS Katowice (W) 3–1–2 Czarni Sosnowiec (W) (6 last)

Czarni Sosnowiec (W)2-2GKS Katowice (W)
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)0-2GKS Katowice (W)
GKS Katowice (W)1-2Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)0-5GKS Katowice (W)
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)2-1GKS Katowice (W)
GKS Katowice (W)2-1Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GKS Katowice (W) 1605 · Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 1597

	GKS Katowice (W)	Draw	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
Our model	31%	24%	46%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours GKS Katowice (W): 3-1-2.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GKS Katowice (W)	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 0.8	3.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6	2.3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 1.45 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.89 ★
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:23 +5’	3.00	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:08 +2’	2.61	3.89	2.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GKS Katowice (W) 3–1–2 Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Poland Cup Women	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	GKS Katowice (W)
04/04/26 Poland Ekstraliga Women	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	GKS Katowice (W)
22/09/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	GKS Katowice (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
16/03/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	0-5 HT 0-3	GKS Katowice (W)
16/10/24 Poland Cup Women	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	GKS Katowice (W)
31/08/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women	GKS Katowice (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GKS Katowice (W)	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
2	Gornik Leczna (W)	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Legia Warsaw (W)	3	2	0	1	9	6	6
4	AZS UJ Krakow (W)	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
6	Pogon Szczecin (W)	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
7	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	3	1	0	2	5	9	3
8	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	3	0	2	1	1	6	2
9	Slask Wroclaw (W)	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
10	Sleza Wroclaw (W)	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	APLG Gdansk (W)	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
12	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	2	0	0	2	2	7	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GKS Katowice (W)	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
UKS SMS Lodz (W)	2-1 W	5-0 W
Slask Wroclaw (W)	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Czarni Sosnowiec (W) (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

GKS Katowice (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-0	5-0	2	1	W
01/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-1	3-1	9	2	W
15/07	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Women’s Friendly	1-0	1-1	9	0	D
15/07	Banik Ostrava (W) Women’s Friendly	3-1	4-1	5	0	W
30/05	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	3-0	10	2	W
23/05	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
20/05	Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-1	4-1	3	3	W
16/05	Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Cup Women	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
09/05	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
06/05	Stomilanki Olsztyn (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	3-0	5-0	4	1	W

Czarni Sosnowiec (W)

DWDWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Spartak Myjava (W) UEFA Women's Champions League Qualifying	3-2	4-2	5	3	W
05/08	Apollon Limassol (W) UEFA Women's Champions League Qualifying	2-2	3-3	10	6	D
31/07	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-0	5-0	7	5	W
25/07	Athlone Town (W) UEFA Women's Champions League Qualifying	1-0	3-1	9	5	W
22/07	KK Nike Women UEFA Women's Champions League Qualifying	3-1	7-1	5	3	W
30/05	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	3-2	4	0	W
23/05	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
16/05	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Cup Women	1-1	2-2	13	4	D
10/05	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
02/05	Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-2	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GKS Katowice (W) vs Czarni Sosnowiec (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Czarni Sosnowiec (W) win (45%). Probabilities: GKS Katowice (W) 30%, draw 24%, Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 45%.

How many goals are expected in GKS Katowice (W) vs Czarni Sosnowiec (W)?

The model expects 3.55 goals (GKS Katowice (W) 1.59 · Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 1.96), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in GKS Katowice (W) vs Czarni Sosnowiec (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.