Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 26/09, 12:00

Prediction: UKS SMS Lodz (W) vs Pogon Szczecin (W)

Team pages: UKS SMS Lodz (W) · Pogon Szczecin (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

UKS SMS Lodz (W)0.99

Pogon Szczecin (W)2.06

1X2

17% 22% 61%

UKS SMS Lodz (W) Draw Pogon Szczecin (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

UKS SMS Lodz (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLLDDL

Pogon Szczecin (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWLWWL

Head-to-head

UKS SMS Lodz (W) 1–1–4 Pogon Szczecin (W) (6 last)

UKS SMS Lodz (W)0-3Pogon Szczecin (W)
Pogon Szczecin (W)5-0UKS SMS Lodz (W)
UKS SMS Lodz (W)0-1Pogon Szczecin (W)
UKS SMS Lodz (W)0-1Pogon Szczecin (W)
Pogon Szczecin (W)0-1UKS SMS Lodz (W)
Pogon Szczecin (W)0-0UKS SMS Lodz (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UKS SMS Lodz (W) 1466 · Pogon Szczecin (W) 1559

	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	Draw	Pogon Szczecin (W)
Our model	16%	22%	61%
Market	17%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pogon Szczecin (W) (rating 1466 vs 1559).
H2H favours Pogon Szczecin (W): 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	Pogon Szczecin (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.6	4 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.20

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	1.42 → 1.44▲	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:30 +9’	5.75	4.33	1.42
13:48 +8’	5.25▼	4.20▼	1.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UKS SMS Lodz (W) 1–1–4 Pogon Szczecin (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Poland Ekstraliga Women	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	Pogon Szczecin (W)
09/08/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	Pogon Szczecin (W)	5-0 HT 2-0	UKS SMS Lodz (W)
03/05/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Pogon Szczecin (W)
23/04/25 Poland Cup Women	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Pogon Szczecin (W)
12/10/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women	Pogon Szczecin (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	UKS SMS Lodz (W)
05/05/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women	Pogon Szczecin (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	UKS SMS Lodz (W)

Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Leczna (W)	4	4	0	0	13	2	12
2	GKS Katowice (W)	4	3	1	0	13	5	10
3	APLG Gdansk (W)	5	3	0	2	7	7	9
4	Pogon Szczecin (W)	5	3	0	2	13	7	9
5	Legia Warsaw (W)	5	3	0	2	14	11	9
6	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	3	2	1	0	11	3	7
7	AZS UJ Krakow (W)	4	2	1	1	6	7	7
8	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	4	1	0	3	5	12	3
9	Slask Wroclaw (W)	5	0	2	3	4	11	2
10	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	4	0	2	2	2	8	2
11	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	5	0	2	3	5	14	2
12	Sleza Wroclaw (W)	4	0	1	3	3	9	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	Pogon Szczecin (W)
APLG Gdansk (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Slask Wroclaw (W)	1-1 D	5-0 W
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	0-5 L	2-2 D
GKS Katowice (W)	1-2 L	2-4 L
AZS UJ Krakow (W)	1-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pogon Szczecin (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UKS SMS Lodz (W)

WWWDLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
15/08	Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	0-0	12	1	D
08/08	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
31/07	Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-5	4	5	L
30/05	Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-3	7	0	L
23/05	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
09/05	Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
02/05	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
25/04	Stomilanki Olsztyn (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
03/04	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-0	2-0	4	4	W

Pogon Szczecin (W)

LDWWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
22/08	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	3-0	5-0	4	3	W
16/08	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	4-1	6	0	W
08/08	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
01/08	Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
30/05	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	1-0	10	7	W
23/05	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
10/05	Pogon Tczew (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
02/05	Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
25/04	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-4	12	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UKS SMS Lodz (W) vs Pogon Szczecin (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pogon Szczecin (W) win (61%). Probabilities: UKS SMS Lodz (W) 17%, draw 22%, Pogon Szczecin (W) 61%.

How many goals are expected in UKS SMS Lodz (W) vs Pogon Szczecin (W)?

The model expects 3.05 goals (UKS SMS Lodz (W) 0.99 · Pogon Szczecin (W) 2.06), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in UKS SMS Lodz (W) vs Pogon Szczecin (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.