Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 30/10, 13:00
Prediction: Gornik Leczna (W) vs UKS SMS Lodz (W)
Team pages: Gornik Leczna (W) · UKS SMS Lodz (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.25Total
Gornik Leczna (W)2.3
UKS SMS Lodz (W)0.95
1X2
Gornik Leczna (W)
Draw
UKS SMS Lodz (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Gornik Leczna (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
UKS SMS Lodz (W)
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gornik Leczna (W)
3–3–0
UKS SMS Lodz (W)
(6 last)
- Gornik Leczna (W)3-0UKS SMS Lodz (W)
- UKS SMS Lodz (W)1-1Gornik Leczna (W)
- Gornik Leczna (W)1-0UKS SMS Lodz (W)
- Gornik Leczna (W)1-1UKS SMS Lodz (W)
- UKS SMS Lodz (W)0-1Gornik Leczna (W)
- Gornik Leczna (W)1-1UKS SMS Lodz (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gornik Leczna (W) 1561 · UKS SMS Lodz (W) 1467
| Gornik Leczna (W) | Draw | UKS SMS Lodz (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Market | 67% | 19% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gornik Leczna (W) (rating 1561 vs 1467).
- H2H favours Gornik Leczna (W): 3-3-0.
- High corners: 15.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gornik Leczna (W) | UKS SMS Lodz (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.3 / 8.4 | 3.2 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gornik Leczna (W) 3–3–0 UKS SMS Lodz (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/26 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Gornik Leczna (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) |
| 16/08/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women | UKS SMS Lodz (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Gornik Leczna (W) |
| 15/03/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Gornik Leczna (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) |
| 13/02/25 Poland Cup Women | Gornik Leczna (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) |
| 31/08/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women | UKS SMS Lodz (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gornik Leczna (W) |
| 19/04/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Gornik Leczna (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) |
Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GKS Katowice (W) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Gornik Leczna (W) | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin (W) | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 15 |
| 4 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | APLG Gdansk (W) | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 14 |
| 6 | Legia Warsaw (W) | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 10 |
| 7 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 10 |
| 8 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 7 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 7 |
| 10 | Sleza Wroclaw (W) | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 7 |
| 11 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 6 |
| 12 | Slask Wroclaw (W) | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 3 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gornik Leczna (W) | UKS SMS Lodz (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Legia Warsaw (W) | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| GKS Katowice (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Sleza Wroclaw (W) | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Lech Poznan UAM (W) | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) | 5-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Pogon Szczecin (W) | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| APLG Gdansk (W) | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | 1-4 L | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Gornik Leczna (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gornik Leczna (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 03/10 | GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 22/08 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
3-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/08 | APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Pogon Tczew (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
4-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 10 | 4 | L |
UKS SMS Lodz (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 04/10 | Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 08/08 | Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gornik Leczna (W) vs UKS SMS Lodz (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gornik Leczna (W) win (67%). Probabilities: Gornik Leczna (W) 67%, draw 19%, UKS SMS Lodz (W) 14%.
How many goals are expected in Gornik Leczna (W) vs UKS SMS Lodz (W)?
The model expects 3.25 goals (Gornik Leczna (W) 2.3 · UKS SMS Lodz (W) 0.95), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Gornik Leczna (W) vs UKS SMS Lodz (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.