Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 08/11, 15:00

Prediction: GKS Katowice (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)

Team pages: GKS Katowice (W) · APLG Gdansk (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

GKS Katowice (W)2.87

APLG Gdansk (W)0.87

1X2

81% 13% 6%

GKS Katowice (W) Draw APLG Gdansk (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

GKS Katowice (W) 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWWW

APLG Gdansk (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWDWDD

Head-to-head

GKS Katowice (W) 6–0 APLG Gdansk (W) (6 last)

GKS Katowice (W)3-0APLG Gdansk (W)
APLG Gdansk (W)2-5GKS Katowice (W)
GKS Katowice (W)4-0APLG Gdansk (W)
APLG Gdansk (W)0-2GKS Katowice (W)
APLG Gdansk (W)1-5GKS Katowice (W)
GKS Katowice (W)5-1APLG Gdansk (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GKS Katowice (W) 1634 · APLG Gdansk (W) 1528

	GKS Katowice (W)	Draw	APLG Gdansk (W)
Our model	78%	14%	8%
Market	85%	11%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours GKS Katowice (W) (rating 1634 vs 1528).
H2H favours GKS Katowice (W): 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GKS Katowice (W)	APLG Gdansk (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	38/50/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.7	2.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.10

X8.50

221.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.95

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.10▼	Bet365 1.10
X	6.25 → 8.50▲	Bet365 8.50
2	10.00 → 21.00▲	Bet365 21.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:36 +8’	1.18	6.25	10.00
16:14 +18’	1.10▼	8.50▲	21.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GKS Katowice (W) 6–0–0 APLG Gdansk (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Poland Ekstraliga Women	GKS Katowice (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	APLG Gdansk (W)
08/11/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	APLG Gdansk (W)	2-5 HT 2-1	GKS Katowice (W)
19/04/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	GKS Katowice (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	APLG Gdansk (W)
28/09/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women	APLG Gdansk (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	GKS Katowice (W)
11/05/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women	APLG Gdansk (W)	1-5 HT 0-2	GKS Katowice (W)
04/11/23 Poland Ekstraliga Women	GKS Katowice (W)	5-1 HT 3-0	APLG Gdansk (W)

Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GKS Katowice (W)	8	7	1	0	28	7	22
2	Gornik Leczna (W)	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
3	Pogon Szczecin (W)	9	6	0	3	22	10	18
4	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	9	5	2	2	21	12	17
5	APLG Gdansk (W)	9	4	3	2	14	12	15
6	Legia Warsaw (W)	9	3	2	4	16	20	11
7	AZS UJ Krakow (W)	9	3	2	4	10	15	11
8	Sleza Wroclaw (W)	9	2	2	5	14	22	8
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	8	1	4	3	9	17	7
10	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	8	2	1	5	11	20	7
11	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	8	1	3	4	5	15	6
12	Slask Wroclaw (W)	9	0	3	6	9	22	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GKS Katowice (W)	APLG Gdansk (W)
Slask Wroclaw (W)	4-1 W	2-1 W
AZS UJ Krakow (W)	3-0 W	1-2 L
Gornik Leczna (W)	2-1 W	0-2 L
Sleza Wroclaw (W)	2-1 W	2-2 D
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	3-3 D	1-1 D
Lech Poznan UAM (W)	5-0 W	3-1 W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	3-1 W	1-1 D
UKS SMS Lodz (W)	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: GKS Katowice (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GKS Katowice (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-1	4-1	9	3	W
18/10	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
03/10	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-1	2-1	1	2	W
26/09	Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	4-0	6-0	9	1	W
22/08	Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
16/08	Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	3-2	3-3	4	1	D
08/08	Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-0	5-0	2	1	W
01/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-1	3-1	9	2	W
30/05	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	3-0	10	2	W
23/05	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

APLG Gdansk (W)

LLLWWWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	–	2-2	–	–	D
17/10	Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/10	Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
27/09	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
29/08	Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-1	2-1	6	2	W
22/08	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
16/08	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
08/08	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	–	1-2	–	–	L
02/08	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
30/05	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	0-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GKS Katowice (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a GKS Katowice (W) win (81%). Probabilities: GKS Katowice (W) 81%, draw 13%, APLG Gdansk (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in GKS Katowice (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?

The model expects 3.74 goals (GKS Katowice (W) 2.87 · APLG Gdansk (W) 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in GKS Katowice (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.