Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: UKS SMS Lodz (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)

Team pages: UKS SMS Lodz (W) · APLG Gdansk (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

UKS SMS Lodz (W)1.73

APLG Gdansk (W)1.23

1X2

48% 25% 26%

UKS SMS Lodz (W) Draw APLG Gdansk (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

UKS SMS Lodz (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLLLDD

APLG Gdansk (W) 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWLLW

Head-to-head

UKS SMS Lodz (W) 2–3–1 APLG Gdansk (W) (6 last)

APLG Gdansk (W)0-6UKS SMS Lodz (W)
UKS SMS Lodz (W)2-2APLG Gdansk (W)
APLG Gdansk (W)1-1UKS SMS Lodz (W)
UKS SMS Lodz (W)1-1APLG Gdansk (W)
UKS SMS Lodz (W)2-0APLG Gdansk (W)
APLG Gdansk (W)1-0UKS SMS Lodz (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UKS SMS Lodz (W) 1513 · APLG Gdansk (W) 1466

	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	Draw	APLG Gdansk (W)
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UKS SMS Lodz (W) (rating 1513 vs 1466).
H2H favours UKS SMS Lodz (W): 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	APLG Gdansk (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 7.5	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	1.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +4’	1.85	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UKS SMS Lodz (W) 2–3–1 APLG Gdansk (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Poland Ekstraliga Women	APLG Gdansk (W)	0-6 HT 0-4	UKS SMS Lodz (W)
13/09/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	2-2 HT 2-1	APLG Gdansk (W)
05/03/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	APLG Gdansk (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	UKS SMS Lodz (W)
17/08/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	APLG Gdansk (W)
28/04/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	APLG Gdansk (W)
07/10/23 Poland Ekstraliga Women	APLG Gdansk (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	UKS SMS Lodz (W)

Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Leczna (W)	3	3	0	0	10	2	9
2	GKS Katowice (W)	3	2	1	0	11	4	7
3	Pogon Szczecin (W)	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
4	Legia Warsaw (W)	3	2	0	1	9	6	6
5	AZS UJ Krakow (W)	3	2	0	1	5	6	6
6	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	2	1	1	0	8	3	4
7	APLG Gdansk (W)	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
8	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	3	1	0	2	5	9	3
9	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	3	0	2	1	1	6	2
10	Slask Wroclaw (W)	3	0	1	2	3	5	1
11	Sleza Wroclaw (W)	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
12	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	3	0	0	3	3	12	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	APLG Gdansk (W)
Slask Wroclaw (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
GKS Katowice (W)	1-2 L	0-3 L
Lech Poznan UAM (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
AZS UJ Krakow (W)	1-0 W	1-2 L
Stomilanki Olsztyn (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

UKS SMS Lodz (W)

WWWWDLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	0-0	12	1	D
08/08	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
31/07	Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-5	4	5	L
30/05	Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-3	7	0	L
23/05	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
09/05	Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
02/05	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
25/04	Stomilanki Olsztyn (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
03/04	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
29/03	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	4-0	6-0	12	2	W

APLG Gdansk (W)

WLLLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
08/08	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	–	1-2	–	–	L
02/08	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
18/07	Stomilanki Olsztyn (W) Women’s Friendly	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
30/05	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
24/05	Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	0	0	W
09/05	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
02/05	Stomilanki Olsztyn (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	1-3	5	1	L
25/04	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
04/04	Pogon Tczew (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-0	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UKS SMS Lodz (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UKS SMS Lodz (W) win (48%). Probabilities: UKS SMS Lodz (W) 48%, draw 25%, APLG Gdansk (W) 26%.

How many goals are expected in UKS SMS Lodz (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?

The model expects 2.96 goals (UKS SMS Lodz (W) 1.73 · APLG Gdansk (W) 1.23), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in UKS SMS Lodz (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.