Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: NK Smartno vs NK Podvinci

Team pages: NK Smartno · NK Podvinci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

NK Smartno1.75

NK Podvinci1.6

1X2

41% 24% 35%

NK Smartno Draw NK Podvinci

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Smartno 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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NK Podvinci 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

NK Smartno 2–2–2 NK Podvinci (6 last)

NK Podvinci0-2NK Smartno
NK Smartno0-0NK Podvinci
NK Podvinci3-3NK Smartno
NK Smartno2-0NK Podvinci
NK Podvinci3-0NK Smartno
NK Smartno1-7NK Podvinci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Smartno 1464 · NK Podvinci 1525

	NK Smartno	Draw	NK Podvinci
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	42%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Podvinci (rating 1464 vs 1525).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Smartno	NK Podvinci
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 5.5	1.3 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.90

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +18’	2.15	3.90	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Smartno 2–2–2 NK Podvinci

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	0-2	NK Smartno
31/10/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Podvinci
09/11/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	3-3 HT 3-2	NK Smartno
24/03/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	2-0 HT 0-0	NK Podvinci
09/09/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Podvinci	3-0 HT 1-0	NK Smartno
19/03/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	1-7 HT 1-3	NK Podvinci

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	5	5	0	0	16	7	15
2	NK Podvinci	5	3	1	1	10	5	10
3	NK Ormoz	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
4	NK Fuzinar	5	3	0	2	15	11	9
5	NK Hajdina	5	2	2	1	9	9	8
6	NK Carda	5	2	1	2	14	10	7
7	NK Ljutomer	5	2	1	2	9	7	7
8	NK Smartno	5	2	1	2	8	12	7
9	NK Korotan Prevalje	5	1	3	1	5	5	6
10	SD Videm	5	2	0	3	8	12	6
11	NK Limbus Pekre	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
12	NK Dobrovce	5	1	0	4	6	16	3
13	NK Race	5	0	2	3	4	7	2
14	NK Sampion Celje	4	0	1	3	6	11	1
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Smartno	NK Podvinci
NK Race	2-1 W	1-3 L
NK Korotan Prevalje	0-0 D	2-0 W
NK Ormoz	2-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Podvinci (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Smartno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	0-5	1-7	2	4	L
05/09	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
22/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-4	–	–	L
23/05	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/05	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
10/05	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/05	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-2	2-5	6	2	L
26/04	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-1	12	3	L

NK Podvinci

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
30/08	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	4-1	0	2	W
22/08	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-3	5	7	L
23/05	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
16/05	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	NK Brezice Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-3	1	6	L
30/04	DNS Zavrc Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	2-3	4	5	L
25/04	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Smartno vs NK Podvinci?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Smartno win (41%). Probabilities: NK Smartno 41%, draw 24%, NK Podvinci 35%.

How many goals are expected in NK Smartno vs NK Podvinci?

The model expects 3.35 goals (NK Smartno 1.75 · NK Podvinci 1.6), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Smartno vs NK Podvinci?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.