Football · England National League North · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: South Shields vs Chorley
Team pages: South Shields · Chorley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
South Shields1.78
Chorley0.97
1X2
South Shields
Draw
Chorley
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
South Shields
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Chorley
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
South Shields
3–2–1
Chorley
(6 last)
- Chorley1-1South Shields
- South Shields2-0Chorley
- South Shields4-1Chorley
- Chorley2-1South Shields
- South Shields3-3Chorley
- South Shields2-1Chorley
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · South Shields 1552 · Chorley 1435
| South Shields | Draw | Chorley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Shields (rating 1552 vs 1435).
- H2H favours South Shields: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Shields | Chorley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.3 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · South Shields 3–2–1 Chorley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 England National League North | Chorley | 1-1 HT 1-1 | South Shields |
| 04/10/25 England National League North | South Shields | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chorley |
| 27/09/25 England FA Cup Qualification | South Shields | 4-1 | Chorley |
| 15/02/25 England National League North | Chorley | 2-1 HT 1-0 | South Shields |
| 21/09/24 England National League North | South Shields | 3-3 HT 0-2 | Chorley |
| 12/03/24 England National League North | South Shields | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Chorley |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebburn Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Merthyr Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Spalding United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Brackley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Buxton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Chester | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Worksop | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Macclesfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Oxford City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | South Shields | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Harborough Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Kings Lynn Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Spennymoor Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | AFC Telford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Chorley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Darlington 1883 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Hereford FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Bedford Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Marine | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Scarborough Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Southport | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Hednesford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 | Radcliffe FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
South Shields
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Dag & Red Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Gateshead UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Harrogate Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Kidderminster England National League North |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Buxton England National League North |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Kidderminster England National League North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Bedford Town England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 24 | 2 | D |
| 14/04 | Macclesfield England National League North |
3-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Radcliffe FC England National League North |
2-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
Chorley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Chester England National League North |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Accrington Stanley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 21/07 | Altrincham UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/07 | Bury Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Bamber Bridge Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Longridge Town FC Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Worksop England National League North |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Curzon Ashton England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 06/04 | Marine England National League North |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in South Shields vs Chorley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a South Shields win (56%). Probabilities: South Shields 56%, draw 25%, Chorley 20%.
How many goals are expected in South Shields vs Chorley?
The model expects 2.75 goals (South Shields 1.78 · Chorley 0.97), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in South Shields vs Chorley?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.