Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 15/07, 22:00
Prediction: Macara vs Mushuc Runa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.2Total
Macara1.28
Mushuc Runa0.91
1X2
Macara
Draw
Mushuc Runa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Macara
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Mushuc Runa
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Macara
2–2–2
Mushuc Runa
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Macara 1544 · Mushuc Runa 1460
| Macara | Draw | Mushuc Runa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Market | 45% | 29% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (rating 1544 vs 1460).
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Macara | Mushuc Runa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.4 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Macara 2–2–2 Mushuc Runa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Macara |
| 23/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Mushuc Runa |
| 04/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 4-3 HT 1-2 | Macara |
| 03/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Macara |
| 11/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mushuc Runa |
| 04/09/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Mushuc Runa |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 36 | 18 | 40 |
| 2 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 27 |
| 5 | Deportivo Cuenca | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 27 |
| 6 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Tecnico Universitario | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 17 | 23 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 9 | Macara | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 23 |
| 10 | Emelec | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 23 |
| 11 | Orense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 22 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 23 | 21 |
| 13 | Guayaquil City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 20 | 19 |
| 14 | Delfin SC | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 17 |
| 15 | Club Atletico Libertad | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 17 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 12 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Macara | Mushuc Runa |
|---|---|---|
| Tecnico Universitario | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| LDU Quito | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Leones FC | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Macara (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Macara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 05/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 02/06 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | America de Cali Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Alianza Atletico Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 07/05 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 7 | D |
Mushuc Runa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 03/06 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Macara vs Mushuc Runa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Macara win (44%). Probabilities: Macara 44%, draw 30%, Mushuc Runa 26%.
How many goals are expected in Macara vs Mushuc Runa?
The model expects 2.2 goals (Macara 1.28 · Mushuc Runa 0.91), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Macara vs Mushuc Runa?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.