Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 22/07, 23:30
Prediction: Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.45Total
Independiente del Valle2.73
Tecnico Universitario0.73
1X2
Independiente del Valle
Draw
Tecnico Universitario
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente del Valle
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Tecnico Universitario
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente del Valle
4–2–0
Tecnico Universitario
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle 1650 · Tecnico Universitario 1458
| Independiente del Valle | Draw | Tecnico Universitario | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 78% | 15% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1650 vs 1458).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle | Tecnico Universitario | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.1 / 6.5 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 4–2–0 Tecnico Universitario
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Independiente del Valle |
| 30/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Tecnico Universitario |
| 11/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle |
| 25/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tecnico Universitario |
| 21/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Independiente del Valle |
| 24/09/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 20 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 49 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 35 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 34 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 18 | 32 |
| 5 | Macara | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 29 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cuenca | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 28 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 27 |
| 9 | Emelec | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 27 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 22 | 26 |
| 11 | Tecnico Universitario | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 21 | 23 |
| 12 | Orense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | 23 |
| 13 | Delfin SC | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 23 |
| 14 | Mushuc Runa | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 29 | 21 |
| 15 | Club Atletico Libertad | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 26 | 21 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 25 | 13 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente del Valle | Tecnico Universitario |
|---|---|---|
| SD Aucas | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Macara | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 16/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/07 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Tecnico Universitario
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 15/07 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 07/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Juventud Italiana Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 24/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 09/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle win (78%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle 78%, draw 15%, Tecnico Universitario 6%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Independiente del Valle 2.73 · Tecnico Universitario 0.73), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.