Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 26/07, 03:00

Prediction: Real Esteli vs Matagalpa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Real Esteli1.9

Matagalpa FC0.8

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Real Esteli Draw Matagalpa FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Real Esteli 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWDDWD

Matagalpa FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Real Esteli 2–3–1 Matagalpa FC (6 last)

Real Esteli0-0Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC1-1Real Esteli
Matagalpa FC1-0Real Esteli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Esteli 1542 · Matagalpa FC 1475

	Real Esteli	Draw	Matagalpa FC
Our model	62%	24%	14%
Market	64%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Esteli (rating 1542 vs 1475).
H2H favours Real Esteli: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Esteli	Matagalpa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:23 +2’	1.40	4.33	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Esteli 2–3–1 Matagalpa FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Esteli	0-0 HT 0-0	Matagalpa FC
23/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Esteli
23/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Esteli
14/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Real Esteli	2-1 HT 1-1	Matagalpa FC
07/07/25 Nicaragua Cup	Real Esteli	1-1 HT 1-0	Matagalpa FC
12/03/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	2-4 HT 1-4	Real Esteli

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Diriangen	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
2	HYH Export Sebaco FC	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	Managua FC	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	Jalapa	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	Real Esteli	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	San Marcos FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	UNAN Managua	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	Rancho Santana FC	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
9	CD Walter Ferretti	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
10	Matagalpa FC	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Esteli	Matagalpa FC
Diriangen	1-1 D	1-3 L
Jalapa	3-1 W	3-1 W
HYH Export Sebaco FC	3-2 W	0-3 L
CD Walter Ferretti	2-4 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Esteli (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Real Esteli

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
12/07	Xilotepelt FC Nicaragua Cup	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
10/05	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
07/05	Jalapa Nicaragua Clausura	2-1	3-1	7	8	W
03/05	Jalapa Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
26/04	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
20/04	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Clausura	1-2	3-2	8	3	W
16/04	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura	1-3	2-4	10	5	L
12/04	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	0-1	0-1	3	9	L

Matagalpa FC

LDLWDWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
05/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Cup	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
07/05	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
03/05	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/04	Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura	1-0	4-2	5	4	W
26/04	Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
19/04	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura	2-0	4-0	0	7	W
16/04	Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-2	0	3	L
12/04	Jalapa Nicaragua Clausura	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
09/04	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	2-3	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Esteli vs Matagalpa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Esteli win (63%). Probabilities: Real Esteli 63%, draw 22%, Matagalpa FC 15%.

How many goals are expected in Real Esteli vs Matagalpa FC?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Real Esteli 1.9 · Matagalpa FC 0.8), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Esteli vs Matagalpa FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.