Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 03/08, 02:00

Prediction: CD Walter Ferretti vs Matagalpa FC

Team pages: CD Walter Ferretti · Matagalpa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

CD Walter Ferretti1.5

Matagalpa FC1.16

1X2

44% 27% 29%

CD Walter Ferretti Draw Matagalpa FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CD Walter Ferretti 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDDDWLDLLL

Matagalpa FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLLWLL

Head-to-head

CD Walter Ferretti 1–2–3 Matagalpa FC (6 last)

Matagalpa FC4-0CD Walter Ferretti
CD Walter Ferretti0-3Matagalpa FC
CD Walter Ferretti1-2Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC2-2CD Walter Ferretti
CD Walter Ferretti0-0Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC0-1CD Walter Ferretti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Walter Ferretti 1431 · Matagalpa FC 1499

	CD Walter Ferretti	Draw	Matagalpa FC
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matagalpa FC (rating 1431 vs 1499).
H2H favours Matagalpa FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Walter Ferretti	Matagalpa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.3	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:47 +89’	2.00	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Walter Ferretti 1–2–3 Matagalpa FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	4-0 HT 2-0	CD Walter Ferretti
19/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	CD Walter Ferretti	0-3 HT 0-1	Matagalpa FC
06/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	CD Walter Ferretti	1-2 HT 1-1	Matagalpa FC
31/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	2-2 HT 1-0	CD Walter Ferretti
08/04/25 Nicaragua Clausura	CD Walter Ferretti	0-0 HT 0-0	Matagalpa FC
09/02/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Walter Ferretti

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Esteli	3	2	1	0	4	1	7
2	Managua FC	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Diriangen	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
4	UNAN Managua	3	1	2	0	4	2	5
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
6	Jalapa	3	1	0	2	1	4	3
7	San Marcos FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
8	CD Walter Ferretti	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
8	Rancho Santana FC	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
10	Matagalpa FC	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Walter Ferretti	Matagalpa FC
Diriangen	1-3 L	1-3 L
Jalapa	0-1 L	3-1 W
Real Esteli	4-2 W	0-2 L
Managua FC	1-1 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Matagalpa FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CD Walter Ferretti

LDDDWLDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
19/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
30/04	Jalapa Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
26/04	Jalapa Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
19/04	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-2	0-4	3	7	L
16/04	Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura	3-1	4-2	0	5	W
13/04	Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-1	7	10	D
10/04	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-0	7	11	D
14/03	Xilotepelt FC Nicaragua Cup	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
08/03	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	2-3	2-5	5	4	L

Matagalpa FC

DLWDWLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
19/07	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
05/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Cup	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
07/05	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
03/05	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/04	Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura	1-0	4-2	5	4	W
26/04	Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
19/04	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura	2-0	4-0	0	7	W
16/04	Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-2	0	3	L
12/04	Jalapa Nicaragua Clausura	1-0	1-1	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Walter Ferretti vs Matagalpa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Walter Ferretti win (44%). Probabilities: CD Walter Ferretti 44%, draw 27%, Matagalpa FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in CD Walter Ferretti vs Matagalpa FC?

The model expects 2.67 goals (CD Walter Ferretti 1.5 · Matagalpa FC 1.16), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Walter Ferretti vs Matagalpa FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.