Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 26/07, 02:00

Prediction: Managua FC vs Jalapa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Managua FC1.5

Jalapa1.05

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Managua FC Draw Jalapa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Managua FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWLWWW

Jalapa 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWDLLW

Head-to-head

Managua FC 3–1–2 Jalapa (6 last)

Managua FC1-0Jalapa
Jalapa2-0Managua FC
Jalapa2-1Managua FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Managua FC 1537 · Jalapa 1540

	Managua FC	Draw	Jalapa
Our model	46%	28%	25%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Managua FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Managua FC	Jalapa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	2.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:33 +3’	1.85	3.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Managua FC 3–1–2 Jalapa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Jalapa
17/01/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	2-0 HT 1-0	Managua FC
20/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	2-1 HT 2-0	Managua FC
17/07/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Managua FC	4-2 HT 1-0	Jalapa
06/04/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	3-1 HT 3-0	Jalapa
12/02/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	0-0 HT 0-0	Managua FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HYH Export Sebaco FC	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
2	Managua FC	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Jalapa	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	Diriangen	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	Real Esteli	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	San Marcos FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	UNAN Managua	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	Rancho Santana FC	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
9	CD Walter Ferretti	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
10	Matagalpa FC	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Managua FC	Jalapa
Rancho Santana FC	2-1 W	4-3 W
Matagalpa FC	2-4 L	1-3 L
UNAN Managua	1-1 D	4-2 W
CD Walter Ferretti	1-1 D	1-0 W
Real Esteli	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Jalapa (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Managua FC

WLDWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
12/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Cup	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
06/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Cup	0-0	3-2	11	6	W
30/04	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-1	2-4	5	4	L
26/04	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	2-1	4-1	1	5	W
19/04	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Clausura	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/04	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	2-1	0	3	W
13/04	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-1	4	10	D
09/04	Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura	1-0	1-2	5	8	L
19/03	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Cup	0-0	2-1	5	3	W

Jalapa

WDWWDWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Cup	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
07/05	Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura	1-2	1-3	5	8	L
03/05	Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
30/04	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	3-0	4	3	W
26/04	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
20/04	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-2	4-3	7	6	W
17/04	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
12/04	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
09/04	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Clausura	3-1	4-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Managua FC vs Jalapa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Managua FC win (47%). Probabilities: Managua FC 47%, draw 27%, Jalapa 26%.

How many goals are expected in Managua FC vs Jalapa?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Managua FC 1.5 · Jalapa 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Managua FC vs Jalapa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.