Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 10/08, 03:00

Prediction: Matagalpa FC vs Managua FC

Team pages: Matagalpa FC · Managua FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Matagalpa FC1.09

Managua FC1.94

1X2

20% 24% 56%

Matagalpa FC Draw Managua FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Matagalpa FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLWLLL

Managua FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Matagalpa FC 2–1–3 Managua FC (6 last)

Managua FC2-4Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC1-2Managua FC
Managua FC1-1Matagalpa FC
Managua FC3-0Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC1-2Managua FC
Matagalpa FC3-1Managua FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Matagalpa FC 1446 · Managua FC 1589

	Matagalpa FC	Draw	Managua FC
Our model	20%	24%	56%
Market	20%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Managua FC (rating 1446 vs 1589).
H2H favours Managua FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Matagalpa FC	Managua FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	2.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	3.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.75

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.77

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.80
2	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.66 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:42 +33’	4.50	3.75	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:51	4.15	3.80	1.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Matagalpa FC 2–1–3 Managua FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	2-4 HT 0-1	Matagalpa FC
16/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Managua FC
16/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Matagalpa FC
02/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Managua FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Matagalpa FC
24/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Managua FC
13/04/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	3-1 HT 3-1	Managua FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Esteli	4	3	1	0	8	2	10
2	Managua FC	3	3	0	0	9	2	9
3	HYH Export Sebaco FC	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
4	Diriangen	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
5	UNAN Managua	3	1	2	0	4	2	5
6	CD Walter Ferretti	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
7	Jalapa	3	1	0	2	1	4	3
8	San Marcos FC	3	0	2	1	3	6	2
9	Rancho Santana FC	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
10	Matagalpa FC	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Matagalpa FC	Managua FC
CD Walter Ferretti	1-4 L	1-1 D
Jalapa	3-1 W	3-0 W
Diriangen	1-3 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Managua FC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Matagalpa FC

LWDWLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
26/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
19/07	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
05/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Cup	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
07/05	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
03/05	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/04	Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura	1-0	4-2	5	4	W
26/04	Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
19/04	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura	2-0	4-0	0	7	W
16/04	Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-2	0	3	L

Managua FC

DWDWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	7	8	W
19/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
12/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Cup	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
06/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Cup	0-0	3-2	11	6	W
30/04	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-1	2-4	5	4	L
26/04	Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura	2-1	4-1	1	5	W
19/04	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Clausura	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/04	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	2-1	0	3	W
13/04	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura	0-0	1-1	4	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Matagalpa FC vs Managua FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Managua FC win (56%). Probabilities: Matagalpa FC 20%, draw 24%, Managua FC 56%.

How many goals are expected in Matagalpa FC vs Managua FC?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Matagalpa FC 1.09 · Managua FC 1.94), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Matagalpa FC vs Managua FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.