Football · Türkiye 1 Lig · 09/08, 18:00

Prediction: 76 Igdir Belediyespor vs Fatih Karagumruk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

76 Igdir Belediyespor1.34

Fatih Karagumruk1.36

1X2

36% 28% 36%

76 Igdir Belediyespor Draw Fatih Karagumruk

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

76 Igdir Belediyespor 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWDLD

Fatih Karagumruk 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLDWWW

Head-to-head

76 Igdir Belediyespor 0–2 Fatih Karagumruk (2 last)

Fatih Karagumruk2-176 Igdir Belediyespor
76 Igdir Belediyespor0-1Fatih Karagumruk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 76 Igdir Belediyespor 1451 · Fatih Karagumruk 1523

	76 Igdir Belediyespor	Draw	Fatih Karagumruk
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fatih Karagumruk (rating 1451 vs 1523).
H2H favours Fatih Karagumruk: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	76 Igdir Belediyespor	Fatih Karagumruk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.8 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.25

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.41 ★
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.25
2	2.45 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.92

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:52 +2’	2.50	3.25	2.45
20:29 +3’	2.25▼	3.20▼	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:53	2.44	3.20	2.83
20:26 +5’	2.41▼	3.25▲	2.92▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · 76 Igdir Belediyespor 0–0–2 Fatih Karagumruk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/25 Türkiye 1 Lig	Fatih Karagumruk	2-1 HT 1-1	76 Igdir Belediyespor
11/01/25 Türkiye 1 Lig	76 Igdir Belediyespor	0-1 HT 0-0	Fatih Karagumruk

Standings · Türkiye 1 Lig

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Manisa BBSK	1	1	0	2	1	3
2	Keciorengucu	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Antalyaspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bandirmaspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Batman Petrolspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bodrum FK	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bursaspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Esenler Erokspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Fatih Karagumruk	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	76 Igdir Belediyespor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Istanbulspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kayserispor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Mardin 1969	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Muglaspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Pendikspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Sariyer	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Sivasspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Umraniyespor	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Vanspor FK	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Boluspor	1	0	1	1	2	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

76 Igdir Belediyespor

LLDLLLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/05	Amedspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-2	3-3	3	8	D
26/04	Sivasspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
19/04	Pendikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
12/04	Adana Demirspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-1	6-1	5	2	W
08/04	Keciorengucu Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
04/04	Erzurumspor FK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
22/03	Corum Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
16/03	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
12/03	Bodrum FK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	2-3	10	7	L
08/03	Boluspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-2	2	5	L

Fatih Karagumruk

DWLWLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	2-1	0	1	W
09/05	Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
03/05	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
27/04	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/04	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-2	1-2	6	4	L
12/04	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
05/04	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-1	0	3	W
19/03	Kayserispor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
13/03	Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
08/03	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	1-1	12	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 76 Igdir Belediyespor vs Fatih Karagumruk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a 76 Igdir Belediyespor win (36%). Probabilities: 76 Igdir Belediyespor 36%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagumruk 36%.

How many goals are expected in 76 Igdir Belediyespor vs Fatih Karagumruk?

The model expects 2.7 goals (76 Igdir Belediyespor 1.34 · Fatih Karagumruk 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in 76 Igdir Belediyespor vs Fatih Karagumruk?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.