Football · Türkiye 1 Lig · 15/08, 20:30

Prediction: Manisa BBSK vs Vanspor FK

Team pages: Manisa BBSK · Vanspor FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Manisa BBSK1.7

Vanspor FK1.07

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Manisa BBSK Draw Vanspor FK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Manisa BBSK 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWLWW

Vanspor FK 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Manisa BBSK 2–0 Vanspor FK (2 last)

Vanspor FK0-1Manisa BBSK
Manisa BBSK2-1Vanspor FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Manisa BBSK 1529 · Vanspor FK 1450

	Manisa BBSK	Draw	Vanspor FK
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manisa BBSK (rating 1529 vs 1450).
H2H favours Manisa BBSK: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Manisa BBSK	Vanspor FK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.5	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.6	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.60▼	Bet365 1.60
X	3.50 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	3.70 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:40 +12’	1.80	3.50	3.70
22:02 +6’	1.75▼	3.60▲	3.90▲
17:02 +5’	1.60▼	3.90▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Manisa BBSK 2–0–0 Vanspor FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Türkiye 1 Lig	Vanspor FK	0-1 HT 0-0	Manisa BBSK
07/12/25 Türkiye 1 Lig	Manisa BBSK	2-1 HT 0-1	Vanspor FK

Standings · Türkiye 1 Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sariyer	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Bandirmaspor	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	Bursaspor	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	76 Igdir Belediyespor	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Kayserispor	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
6	Antalyaspor	1	1	0	0	4	3	3
7	Manisa BBSK	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Esenler Erokspor	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	Batman Petrolspor	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Pendikspor	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	Mardin 1969	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Umraniyespor	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	Sivasspor	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
14	Keciorengucu	1	0	0	1	3	4	0
15	Boluspor	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
16	Bodrum FK	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
16	Fatih Karagumruk	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
16	Muglaspor	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
16	Vanspor FK	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
20	Istanbulspor	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Manisa BBSK	Vanspor FK
Sakaryaspor	5-0 W	1-2 L
Keciorengucu	1-2 L	0-3 L
Serikspor	1-0 W	6-1 W
Adana Demirspor	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sariyer	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Manisa BBSK (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Manisa BBSK

WLLLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Boluspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-1	2-1	3	1	W
01/05	Sakaryaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	5-0	7	4	W
26/04	Keciorengucu Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
19/04	Serikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
12/04	Vanspor FK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
07/04	Pendikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
03/04	Adana Demirspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	1-2	8	2	L
21/03	Sivasspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
15/03	Amedspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
10/03	Sariyer Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	3-0	2	7	W

Vanspor FK

WLDLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Kayserispor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
01/05	Hatayspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-3	5	6	L
25/04	Istanbulspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
19/04	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
12/04	Manisa BBSK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
08/04	Serikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-1	6-1	5	6	W
04/04	Keciorengucu Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
22/03	Sariyer Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
15/03	Sakaryaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
10/03	Adana Demirspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Manisa BBSK vs Vanspor FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Manisa BBSK win (51%). Probabilities: Manisa BBSK 51%, draw 26%, Vanspor FK 23%.

How many goals are expected in Manisa BBSK vs Vanspor FK?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Manisa BBSK 1.7 · Vanspor FK 1.07), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Manisa BBSK vs Vanspor FK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.