Football · France Division 1 Women · 05/09, 20:00

Prediction: Lens (W) vs PSG (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Lens (W)1.27

PSG (W)1.79

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Lens (W) Draw PSG (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lens (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLLWLL

PSG (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Lens (W) 0–2 PSG (W) (2 last)

PSG (W)3-0Lens (W)
Lens (W)0-3PSG (W)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSG (W) (rating 1462 vs 1596).
H2H favours PSG (W): 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lens (W)	PSG (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.9	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	2.6 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.87

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:38

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	11.38 → 11.38	Pinn 11.38
X	5.96 → 5.96	Pinn 5.96
2	1.19 → 1.19	Pinn 1.19

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +4’	11.38	5.96	1.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lens (W) 0–0–2 PSG (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 France Division 1 Women	PSG (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Lens (W)
06/09/25 France Division 1 Women	Lens (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	PSG (W)

Standings · France Division 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lyon (W)	1	1	0	7	1	3
2	Nantes (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Le Havre (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Marseille (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Montpellier (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Paris FC (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	PSG (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Lens (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Strasbourg (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Saint Malo (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Toulouse (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	FC Fleury 91 (W)	1	0	1	1	7	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lens (W)	PSG (W)
Paris FC (W)	2-6 L	0-1 L
Marseille (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
St Etienne (W)	1-2 L	2-0 W
Montpellier (W)	2-1 W	3-2 W
FC Fleury 91 (W)	0-2 L	2-0 W
Nantes (W)	2-2 D	2-1 W
Strasbourg (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: PSG (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lens (W)

LDLLWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/05	Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women	2-2	2-6	4	4	L
25/04	Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
22/04	Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
28/03	St Etienne (W) France Division 1 Women	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
22/03	Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
11/03	Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women	2-1	2-1	3	7	W
20/02	PSG (W) France Division 1 Women	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
07/02	FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
31/01	Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
17/01	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	0-1	0-1	3	2	L

PSG (W)

LWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
06/05	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/04	FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
22/04	St Etienne (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-0	10	1	W
28/03	Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
22/03	Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women	1-1	3-2	7	4	W
11/03	Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-1	11	5	W
20/02	Lens (W) France Division 1 Women	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
07/02	Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women	3-0	3-0	3	6	W
01/02	Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lens (W) vs PSG (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PSG (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Lens (W) 26%, draw 25%, PSG (W) 49%.

How many goals are expected in Lens (W) vs PSG (W)?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Lens (W) 1.27 · PSG (W) 1.79), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lens (W) vs PSG (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.