Football · France Division 1 Women · 06/09, 15:00

Prediction: Paris FC (W) vs Nantes (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Paris FC (W)2.13

Nantes (W)1.09

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Paris FC (W) Draw Nantes (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Paris FC (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWL

Nantes (W) 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLWDDL

Head-to-head

Paris FC (W) 0–2–2 Nantes (W) (4 last)

Paris FC (W)1-2Nantes (W)
Nantes (W)3-1Paris FC (W)
Paris FC (W)0-0Nantes (W)
Nantes (W)0-0Paris FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paris FC (W) 1549 · Nantes (W) 1520

	Paris FC (W)	Draw	Nantes (W)
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nantes (W): 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paris FC (W)	Nantes (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.80

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
07:06 +14’	1.50	3.80	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paris FC (W) 0–2–2 Nantes (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/01/26 France Division 1 Women	Paris FC (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Nantes (W)
03/10/25 France Division 1 Women	Nantes (W)	3-1 HT 1-0	Paris FC (W)
01/03/25 France Division 1 Women	Paris FC (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Nantes (W)
02/11/24 France Division 1 Women	Nantes (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Paris FC (W)

Standings · France Division 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lyon (W)	1	1	0	7	1	3
2	Nantes (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Le Havre (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Marseille (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Montpellier (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Paris FC (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	PSG (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Lens (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Strasbourg (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Saint Malo (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Toulouse (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	FC Fleury 91 (W)	1	0	1	1	7	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paris FC (W)	Nantes (W)
Lyon (W)	0-5 L	0-8 L
PSG (W)	1-0 W	1-2 L
Lens (W)	6-2 W	2-2 D
Dijon (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Montpellier (W)	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Fleury 91 (W)	2-1 W	2-0 W
Strasbourg (W)	3-0 W	3-0 W
Le Havre (W)	4-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Paris FC (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paris FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/05	Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women	0-3	0-5	0	3	L
16/05	PSG (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
06/05	Lens (W) France Division 1 Women	2-2	6-2	9	4	W
25/04	Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
22/04	Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/03	FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
21/03	St Etienne (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
11/03	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
22/02	Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	4-0	12	3	W
07/02	PSG (W) France Division 1 Women	0-3	0-3	2	6	L

Nantes (W)

DDDWWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	0-8	1	3	L
06/05	Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women	2-1	3-3	3	0	D
29/04	Lyon (W) France Division 1 Women	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
22/04	Marseille (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
28/03	PSG (W) France Division 1 Women	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
22/03	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	3-0	3-0	2	3	W
11/03	FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
21/02	Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women	2-0	2-2	3	9	D
07/02	Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
31/01	Lens (W) France Division 1 Women	2-1	2-2	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paris FC (W) vs Nantes (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paris FC (W) win (60%). Probabilities: Paris FC (W) 60%, draw 23%, Nantes (W) 17%.

How many goals are expected in Paris FC (W) vs Nantes (W)?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Paris FC (W) 2.13 · Nantes (W) 1.09), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Paris FC (W) vs Nantes (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.