Football · England National League · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Hornchurch vs Kidderminster

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

AFC Hornchurch1.18

Kidderminster1.31

1X2

33% 28% 39%

AFC Hornchurch Draw Kidderminster

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Hornchurch 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDDWWL

Kidderminster 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Hornchurch 1541 · Kidderminster 1619

	AFC Hornchurch	Draw	Kidderminster
Our model	32%	30%	38%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kidderminster (rating 1541 vs 1619).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Hornchurch	Kidderminster
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5	3.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:21 +1’	2.75	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AFC Fylde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aldershot	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Altrincham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barrow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Boreham Wood	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Boston Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Carlisle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eastleigh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Halifax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forest Green	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gateshead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Harrogate Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hartlepool	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AFC Hornchurch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kidderminster	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Scunthorpe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Solihull Moors	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Southend	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sutton Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tamworth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wealdstone	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Woking	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Worthing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yeovil	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AFC Hornchurch

WDWDWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Enfield Town UK Friendlies	0-2	2-4	15	0	L
21/07	Leyton Orient Club Friendly List	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Redbridge UK Friendlies	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
07/07	Dag & Red UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
09/05	Torquay England National League South	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
02/05	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
25/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
18/04	Chippenham Town England National League South	0-0	3-1	2	1	W
14/04	Chelmsford England National League South	1-2	3-3	2	6	D
11/04	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	1-0	8	2	W

Kidderminster

WWWWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Stourbridge Club Friendly List	3-0	5-0	–	–	W
28/07	Alvechurch UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	9	0	D
18/07	Halesowen UK Friendlies	0-0	2-0	4	0	W
14/07	Droitwich SPA FC Club Friendly List	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
09/05	South Shields England National League North	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
02/05	Macclesfield England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	7	W
25/04	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
18/04	Leamington England National League North	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
14/04	Radcliffe FC England National League North	2-0	3-1	2	6	W
11/04	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	3-1	4-1	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Hornchurch vs Kidderminster?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kidderminster win (39%). Probabilities: AFC Hornchurch 33%, draw 28%, Kidderminster 39%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Hornchurch vs Kidderminster?

The model expects 2.49 goals (AFC Hornchurch 1.18 · Kidderminster 1.31), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Hornchurch vs Kidderminster?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.