Football · England National League · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Hartlepool vs Barrow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Hartlepool1.4

Barrow1.33

1X2

38% 28% 35%

Hartlepool Draw Barrow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hartlepool 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWWWLW

Barrow 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Hartlepool 3–1–2 Barrow (6 last)

Hartlepool3-1Barrow
Barrow3-1Hartlepool
Hartlepool3-1Barrow
Barrow3-2Hartlepool
Hartlepool2-2Barrow
Barrow0-1Hartlepool

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hartlepool 1540 · Barrow 1536

	Hartlepool	Draw	Barrow
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	38%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hartlepool: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartlepool	Barrow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	2.3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.30

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.86

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:20 +1’	2.40	3.30	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:21	2.26	3.77	2.79
09:34 +1’	2.23▼	3.77	2.83▲
10:36 +2’	2.22▼	3.76▼	2.86▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartlepool 3–1–2 Barrow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/23 England League 2	Hartlepool	3-1 HT 1-1	Barrow
19/11/22 England League 2	Barrow	3-1 HT 3-0	Hartlepool
08/02/22 England League 2	Hartlepool	3-1 HT 3-1	Barrow
14/08/21 England League 2	Barrow	3-2 HT 1-1	Hartlepool
28/12/19 England National League	Hartlepool	2-2 HT 0-0	Barrow
03/09/19 England National League	Barrow	0-1 HT 0-0	Hartlepool

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AFC Fylde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aldershot	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Altrincham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barrow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Boreham Wood	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Boston Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Carlisle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eastleigh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Halifax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forest Green	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gateshead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Harrogate Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hartlepool	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AFC Hornchurch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kidderminster	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Scunthorpe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Solihull Moors	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Southend	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sutton Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tamworth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wealdstone	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Woking	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Worthing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yeovil	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hartlepool

DLWWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Fleetwood Town UK Friendlies	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/07	Grimsby UK Friendlies	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
21/07	Hebburn Town UK Friendlies	1-1	3-2	6	0	W
18/07	Spennymoor Town Club Friendly List	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
14/07	Redcar Athletic UK Friendlies	2-1	4-2	8	2	W
25/04	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-3	3	4	L
21/04	Southend England National League	1-1	4-3	2	2	W
18/04	Forest Green England National League	2-0	2-1	6	2	W
11/04	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	0-3	2	2	L
06/04	Rochdale England National League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Barrow

WLLLWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Morecambe UK Friendlies	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
25/07	Blackpool UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
21/07	Radcliffe FC UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
18/07	Mansfield Club Friendly List	0-2	4-3	–	–	W
11/07	Workington UK Friendlies	2-0	2-0	11	1	W
04/07	Holker Club Friendly List	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/05	Newport County England League 2	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
25/04	Cambridge Utd England League 2	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
18/04	Walsall England League 2	0-2	1-3	5	1	L
14/04	Oldham England League 2	0-0	3-2	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartlepool vs Barrow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hartlepool win (38%). Probabilities: Hartlepool 38%, draw 28%, Barrow 35%.

How many goals are expected in Hartlepool vs Barrow?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Hartlepool 1.4 · Barrow 1.33), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Barrow?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.