Football · England National League · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Carlisle vs Worthing
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Carlisle1.82
Worthing1
1X2
Carlisle
Draw
Worthing
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Carlisle
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Worthing
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlisle 1529 · Worthing 1570
| Carlisle | Draw | Worthing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | 57% | 22% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Worthing (rating 1529 vs 1570).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carlisle | Worthing | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 2.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.7 | 2.8 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0.4 |
Standings · England National League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AFC Fylde | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aldershot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Altrincham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barrow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Boston Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Carlisle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Eastleigh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Halifax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Forest Green | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gateshead | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Harrogate Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hartlepool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AFC Hornchurch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kidderminster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Scunthorpe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Solihull Moors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Southend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sutton Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tamworth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wealdstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Woking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Worthing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Yeovil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlisle
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Salford City UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Darlington 1883 UK Friendlies |
4-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Workington Club Friendly List |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Boreham Wood England National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 25/04 | Brackley England National League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Truro City England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | Sutton Utd England National League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 06/04 | Morecambe England National League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Gateshead England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Braintree Town England National League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Worthing
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Horsham UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Horsham Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/07 | Enfield Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 21/07 | QPR U21 UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Frome Town Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | Ebbsfleet United England National League South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Maidstone Utd England National League South |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Dag & Red England National League South |
2-1 | 7-2 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 06/04 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Eastbourne Borough England National League South |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlisle vs Worthing?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carlisle win (56%). Probabilities: Carlisle 56%, draw 23%, Worthing 20%.
How many goals are expected in Carlisle vs Worthing?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Carlisle 1.82 · Worthing 1), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Worthing?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.