Football · England National League · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Boston Utd vs Aldershot

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Boston Utd1.39

Aldershot1.09

1X2

43% 27% 29%

Boston Utd Draw Aldershot

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Boston Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Aldershot 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Boston Utd 2–1–1 Aldershot (4 last)

Boston Utd0-2Aldershot
Aldershot2-3Boston Utd
Aldershot1-2Boston Utd
Boston Utd1-1Aldershot

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boston Utd 1522 · Aldershot 1493

	Boston Utd	Draw	Aldershot
Our model	42%	29%	28%
Market	44%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Boston Utd: 2-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boston Utd	Aldershot
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.1	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.1	1.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.35 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:14 +7’	2.05	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:21	2.05	3.56	3.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boston Utd 2–1–1 Aldershot

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England National League	Boston Utd	0-2 HT 0-2	Aldershot
16/08/25 England National League	Aldershot	2-3 HT 0-1	Boston Utd
08/04/25 England National League	Aldershot	1-2 HT 1-0	Boston Utd
14/09/24 England National League	Boston Utd	1-1 HT 0-1	Aldershot

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AFC Fylde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aldershot	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Altrincham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barrow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Boreham Wood	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Boston Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Carlisle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eastleigh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Halifax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forest Green	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gateshead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Harrogate Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hartlepool	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AFC Hornchurch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kidderminster	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Scunthorpe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Solihull Moors	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Southend	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sutton Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tamworth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wealdstone	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Woking	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Worthing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yeovil	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boston Utd	Aldershot
Truro City	1-0 W	0-2 L
Brackley	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Boston Utd (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Boston Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Hednesford Club Friendly List	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
29/07	Grimsby UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
25/07	Peterborough UK Friendlies	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
14/07	Alfreton Town UK Friendlies	0-1	2-1	4	0	W
11/07	Lincoln City UK Friendlies	0-1	0-1	1	0	L
25/04	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	3-1	4	4	W
18/04	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
14/04	Wealdstone England National League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
11/04	Truro City England National League	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
06/04	Brackley England National League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D

Aldershot

LLLLDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Braintree Town UK Friendlies	0-1	2-1	6	0	W
25/07	Hanwell Town UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
21/07	Oxford Utd UK Friendlies	1-2	1-3	3	0	L
18/07	Farnborough UK Friendlies	1-0	2-1	7	0	W
15/07	Portsmouth UK Friendlies	2-0	2-0	6	0	W
07/07	Bedford Town UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
25/04	Truro City England National League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
18/04	Brackley England National League	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
14/04	Southend England National League	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
11/04	Gateshead England National League	0-1	0-1	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boston Utd vs Aldershot?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boston Utd win (43%). Probabilities: Boston Utd 43%, draw 27%, Aldershot 29%.

How many goals are expected in Boston Utd vs Aldershot?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Boston Utd 1.39 · Aldershot 1.09), with a 61% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Boston Utd vs Aldershot?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.