Football · England National League · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Boreham Wood vs Tamworth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Boreham Wood2.26

Tamworth0.99

1X2

65% 20% 15%

Boreham Wood Draw Tamworth

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Boreham Wood 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

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Tamworth 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWLLDDW

Head-to-head

Boreham Wood 0–2 Tamworth (2 last)

Tamworth3-2Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood1-2Tamworth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boreham Wood 1569 · Tamworth 1529

	Boreham Wood	Draw	Tamworth
Our model	65%	21%	14%
Market	65%	20%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boreham Wood (rating 1569 vs 1529).
H2H favours Tamworth: 2-0-0.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boreham Wood	Tamworth
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	56/22/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.9	4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.42
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.85 ★
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +16’	1.40	4.50	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:21	1.42	4.85	6.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boreham Wood 0–0–2 Tamworth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 England National League	Tamworth	3-2 HT 1-0	Boreham Wood
15/11/25 England National League	Boreham Wood	1-2 HT 1-1	Tamworth

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AFC Fylde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aldershot	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Altrincham	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barrow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Boreham Wood	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Boston Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Carlisle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eastleigh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Halifax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forest Green	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gateshead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Harrogate Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hartlepool	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AFC Hornchurch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kidderminster	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Scunthorpe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Solihull Moors	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Southend	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sutton Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tamworth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wealdstone	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Woking	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Worthing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yeovil	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Boreham Wood

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Dag & Red UK Friendlies	2-0	2-1	4	0	W
21/07	Tottenham U21 UK Friendlies	0-1	2-1	11	0	W
17/07	Arsenal U21 UK Friendlies	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
14/07	Real Bedford UK Friendlies	1-1	8-2	–	–	W
11/07	Watford UK Friendlies	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
10/05	Rochdale England National League	1-0	2-2	8	2	D
03/05	Carlisle England National League	1-1	1-1	7	9	D
29/04	Forest Green England National League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
25/04	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
18/04	Morecambe England National League	1-0	3-0	7	0	W

Tamworth

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	AFC Telford UK Friendlies	1-0	3-1	2	0	W
28/07	Macclesfield UK Friendlies	1-0	1-1	7	1	D
25/07	Halesowen UK Friendlies	0-1	2-2	6	0	D
21/07	Aston Villa U21 UK Friendlies	1-0	1-2	7	0	L
14/07	Port Vale Club Friendly List	–	0-5	–	–	L
11/07	Walton & Hersham UK Friendlies	1-1	2-1	7	0	W
04/07	Lichfield City UK Friendlies	1-0	4-2	9	0	W
25/04	Braintree Town England National League	2-1	5-1	10	2	W
18/04	Eastleigh England National League	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
11/04	York England National League	0-1	0-1	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boreham Wood vs Tamworth?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boreham Wood win (65%). Probabilities: Boreham Wood 65%, draw 20%, Tamworth 15%.

How many goals are expected in Boreham Wood vs Tamworth?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Boreham Wood 2.26 · Tamworth 0.99), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Boreham Wood vs Tamworth?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.