Football · Northern Ireland Championship Women · 10/07, 20:30
Prediction: Mid Ulster (W) vs Greenisland (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.69Total
Mid Ulster (W)0.94
Greenisland (W)2.75
1X2
Mid Ulster (W)
Draw
Greenisland (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Mid Ulster (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Greenisland (W)
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mid Ulster (W)
0–2
Greenisland (W)
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mid Ulster (W) 1403 · Greenisland (W) 1562
| Mid Ulster (W) | Draw | Greenisland (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 16% | 75% |
| Market | 10% | 15% | 75% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Greenisland (W) (rating 1403 vs 1562).
- H2H favours Greenisland (W): 2-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mid Ulster (W) | Greenisland (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 3.2 | 2.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3 | 2.4 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 0.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mid Ulster (W) 0–0–2 Greenisland (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship Women | Mid Ulster (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Greenisland (W) |
| 09/05/25 Northern Ireland Championship Women | Greenisland (W) | 4-3 HT 4-2 | Mid Ulster (W) |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mid Ulster (W) | Greenisland (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Craigavon City (W) | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Bangor FC (W) | 0-7 L | 1-4 L |
| Strabane Athletic (W) | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Ballymoney United (W) | 3-6 L | 2-1 W |
| St. James Swifts (W) | 1-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Ballyclare Comrades (W) | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Greenisland (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mid Ulster (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Sion Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 05/06 | Craigavon City (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 22/05 | Ballymena Utd (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 13/05 | Bangor FC (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Strabane Athletic (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 29/04 | Ballymoney United (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-1 | 3-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | St. James Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/03 | Sion Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 12/09 | Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 08/09 | Greenisland (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
Greenisland (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Ballymoney United (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 24/06 | Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 03/06 | St. James Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 06/05 | Craigavon City (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/04 | Bangor FC (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 15/04 | Strabane Athletic (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 08/04 | Ballymoney United (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/04 | Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 08/09 | Mid Ulster (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 27/08 | Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
3-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mid Ulster (W) vs Greenisland (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Greenisland (W) win (75%). Probabilities: Mid Ulster (W) 10%, draw 15%, Greenisland (W) 75%.
How many goals are expected in Mid Ulster (W) vs Greenisland (W)?
The model expects 3.69 goals (Mid Ulster (W) 0.94 · Greenisland (W) 2.75), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Mid Ulster (W) vs Greenisland (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.