Football · Germany 3. Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: FC Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg

Team pages: FC Ingolstadt · MSV Duisburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

FC Ingolstadt1.42

MSV Duisburg1.61

1X2

33% 26% 41%

FC Ingolstadt Draw MSV Duisburg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Ingolstadt 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLLLWW

MSV Duisburg 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

FC Ingolstadt 4–1–1 MSV Duisburg (6 last)

FC Ingolstadt0-0MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg2-1FC Ingolstadt
FC Ingolstadt2-0MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg1-2FC Ingolstadt
FC Ingolstadt2-0MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg0-1FC Ingolstadt

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MSV Duisburg (rating 1494 vs 1578).
H2H favours FC Ingolstadt: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Ingolstadt	MSV Duisburg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	2.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	3.2 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.87

Under 31.92

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 19:24

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.17 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.30
X	3.69 → 3.76▲	Pinn 3.76
2	2.03 → 2.01▼	Pinn 2.01

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +7’	3.17	3.69	2.03
17:41 +36’	3.20▲	3.74▲	2.05▲
19:17 +7’	3.30▲	3.76▲	2.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ingolstadt 4–1–1 MSV Duisburg

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Germany 3. Liga	FC Ingolstadt	0-0 HT 0-0	MSV Duisburg
27/09/25 Germany 3. Liga	MSV Duisburg	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Ingolstadt
20/04/24 Germany 3. Liga	FC Ingolstadt	2-0 HT 1-0	MSV Duisburg
11/11/23 Germany 3. Liga	MSV Duisburg	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Ingolstadt
12/05/23 Germany 3. Liga	FC Ingolstadt	2-0 HT 1-0	MSV Duisburg
12/11/22 Germany 3. Liga	MSV Duisburg	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Ingolstadt

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	10	8	1	1	27	12	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	10	6	2	2	27	14	20
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	10	5	3	2	18	13	18
4	Saarbrucken	10	5	2	3	24	17	17
5	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
6	Hansa Rostock	10	4	3	3	17	19	15
7	VfB Stuttgart II	10	4	2	4	17	18	14
8	Alemannia Aachen	10	4	2	4	15	16	14
9	FC Ingolstadt	10	4	2	4	13	15	14
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	4	2	4	11	13	14
11	Waldhof Mannheim	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
12	SC Preussen Munster	10	3	3	4	18	21	12
13	Wehen SV	10	3	3	4	12	15	12
14	Verl	10	3	3	4	15	19	12
15	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	10	3	3	4	12	18	12
16	Wurzburger Kickers	10	3	2	5	15	19	11
17	Jahn Regensburg	10	2	4	4	20	19	10
18	SC Fortuna Köln	10	2	4	4	8	11	10
19	SV Meppen	9	3	1	5	11	16	10
20	TSV Havelse	9	1	2	6	12	22	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Ingolstadt	MSV Duisburg
Wehen SV	2-4 L	4-1 W
FC Viktoria Köln	0-3 L	1-1 D
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	1-2 L	3-2 W
Saarbrucken	1-0 W	4-2 W
Wurzburger Kickers	2-2 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: MSV Duisburg (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Ingolstadt

DDWLWLLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
14/10	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	0-0	3-0	7	4	W
11/10	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-4	9	5	L
19/09	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-3	5	5	L
16/09	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
12/09	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/09	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	0-3	0-3	1	4	L
29/08	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
15/08	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
08/08	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-2	2-2	4	3	D

MSV Duisburg

DWWWWLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	3-0	4-2	5	2	W
10/10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	0-2	3-2	3	9	W
20/09	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	3-1	4-1	8	3	W
15/09	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
12/09	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
05/09	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	5	9	W
29/08	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
15/08	Verl Germany 3. Liga	0-1	4-2	11	5	W
08/08	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	1-0	3-0	10	4	W
16/05	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	13	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MSV Duisburg win (41%). Probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 33%, draw 26%, MSV Duisburg 41%.

How many goals are expected in FC Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg?

The model expects 3.03 goals (FC Ingolstadt 1.42 · MSV Duisburg 1.61), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.