Football · Germany 3. Liga · 01/11, 16:30

Prediction: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiss Essen

Team pages: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · Rot-Weiss Essen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1.35

Rot-Weiss Essen1.73

1X2

29% 25% 45%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Draw Rot-Weiss Essen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDDLLDWL

Rot-Weiss Essen 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDDWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1442 · Rot-Weiss Essen 1541

	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	Draw	Rot-Weiss Essen
Our model	29%	26%	45%
Market	29%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rot-Weiss Essen (rating 1442 vs 1541).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	Rot-Weiss Essen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.5	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5.4	3.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.83 ★
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.03

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:21 +7’	3.10	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:36 +226’	3.15	3.92	2.02
11:16 +1’	3.15	3.90▼	2.03▲
22:09 +15’	3.19▲	3.91▲	2.01▼
03:16 +6’	3.20▲	3.83▼	2.03▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Germany 3. Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	11	8	1	2	28	14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	7	2	2	30	15	23
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	11	6	3	2	19	13	21
4	Saarbrucken	11	5	2	4	26	20	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	5	2	4	17	17	17
6	FC Ingolstadt	11	5	2	4	15	16	17
7	Waldhof Mannheim	11	5	1	5	20	17	16
8	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	11	5	1	5	21	19	16
9	Hansa Rostock	11	4	4	3	18	20	16
10	Wehen SV	11	4	3	4	19	16	15
11	SC Preussen Munster	11	4	3	4	19	21	15
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	4	3	4	12	14	15
13	SV Meppen	11	4	2	5	16	17	14
14	VfB Stuttgart II	11	4	2	5	18	20	14
15	Verl	11	3	3	5	16	22	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	3	3	5	13	25	12
17	Wurzburger Kickers	11	3	2	6	15	23	11
18	Jahn Regensburg	11	2	4	5	20	20	10
19	SC Fortuna Köln	11	2	4	5	8	12	10
20	TSV Havelse	11	2	3	6	16	25	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	Rot-Weiss Essen
Wehen SV	1-7 L	0-0 D
SC Preussen Munster	3-2 W	3-3 D
FC Viktoria Köln	2-2 D	1-0 W
Waldhof Mannheim	1-5 L	2-1 W
TSV Havelse	2-2 D	1-0 W
FC Ingolstadt	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Rot-Weiss Essen (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

LLWDDLLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	1-3	1-7	3	3	L
17/10	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	0-2	3-2	4	4	W
14/10	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-2	2-2	2	5	D
10/10	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	1-2	1-5	8	4	L
19/09	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
15/09	Verl Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
12/09	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	2-1	2-2	6	8	D
06/09	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
29/08	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	14	2	L
15/08	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L

Rot-Weiss Essen

WDWWWDDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
17/10	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
13/10	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
09/10	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	0-2	3-3	4	5	D
20/09	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
16/09	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
12/09	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	3-0	6-2	6	6	W
05/09	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	10	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rot-Weiss Essen win (45%). Probabilities: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 29%, draw 25%, Rot-Weiss Essen 45%.

How many goals are expected in SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

The model expects 3.08 goals (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.35 · Rot-Weiss Essen 1.73), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.