Football · Germany 3. Liga · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: MSV Duisburg vs VfB Stuttgart II

Team pages: MSV Duisburg · VfB Stuttgart II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

MSV Duisburg2.34

VfB Stuttgart II1.35

1X2

59% 21% 20%

MSV Duisburg Draw VfB Stuttgart II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

MSV Duisburg 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWDL

VfB Stuttgart II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDDWWL

Head-to-head

MSV Duisburg 3–1–0 VfB Stuttgart II (4 last)

VfB Stuttgart II0-4MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg2-1VfB Stuttgart II
VfB Stuttgart II1-2MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg1-1VfB Stuttgart II

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MSV Duisburg (rating 1566 vs 1472).
H2H favours MSV Duisburg: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MSV Duisburg	VfB Stuttgart II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.2	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.94

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:36

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.52▲	Pinn 1.52
X	4.79 → 4.55▼	Pinn 4.55
2	5.61 → 5.07▼	Pinn 5.07

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +3’	1.45	4.79	5.61
19:08 +29’	1.52▲	4.55▼	5.07▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MSV Duisburg 3–1–0 VfB Stuttgart II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Germany 3. Liga	VfB Stuttgart II	0-4 HT 0-0	MSV Duisburg
02/08/25 Germany 3. Liga	MSV Duisburg	2-1 HT 0-0	VfB Stuttgart II
12/04/15 Germany 3. Liga	VfB Stuttgart II	1-2 HT 0-2	MSV Duisburg
04/10/14 Germany 3. Liga	MSV Duisburg	1-1 HT 1-0	VfB Stuttgart II

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	11	8	1	2	28	14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	7	2	2	30	15	23
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	11	6	3	2	19	13	21
4	Saarbrucken	10	5	2	3	24	17	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	5	2	4	17	17	17
6	FC Ingolstadt	11	5	2	4	15	16	17
7	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	4	4	3	18	20	16
9	Wehen SV	11	4	3	4	19	16	15
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	4	3	4	12	14	15
11	SV Meppen	11	4	2	5	16	17	14
12	VfB Stuttgart II	11	4	2	5	18	20	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
14	SC Preussen Munster	10	3	3	4	18	21	12
15	Verl	11	3	3	5	16	22	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	3	3	5	13	25	12
17	Wurzburger Kickers	11	3	2	6	15	23	11
18	Jahn Regensburg	11	2	4	5	20	20	10
19	SC Fortuna Köln	10	2	4	4	8	11	10
20	TSV Havelse	10	1	3	6	13	23	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MSV Duisburg	VfB Stuttgart II
FC Viktoria Köln	1-1 D	1-3 L
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	3-2 W	3-2 W
Fortuna Dusseldorf	1-2 L	0-1 L
Jahn Regensburg	2-1 W	3-3 D
Wurzburger Kickers	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: MSV Duisburg (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MSV Duisburg

WWWLWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
18/10	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
13/10	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	3-0	4-2	5	2	W
10/10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	0-2	3-2	3	9	W
20/09	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	3-1	4-1	8	3	W
15/09	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
12/09	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
05/09	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	5	9	W
29/08	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
15/08	Verl Germany 3. Liga	0-1	4-2	11	5	W

VfB Stuttgart II

LLWLLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	10	6	L
16/10	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
13/10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	2-1	3-2	2	7	W
10/10	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
19/09	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	2-3	3-3	1	5	D
16/09	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-3	4	2	L
13/09	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
06/09	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	4	9	W
28/08	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
16/08	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MSV Duisburg vs VfB Stuttgart II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MSV Duisburg win (59%). Probabilities: MSV Duisburg 59%, draw 21%, VfB Stuttgart II 20%.

How many goals are expected in MSV Duisburg vs VfB Stuttgart II?

The model expects 3.69 goals (MSV Duisburg 2.34 · VfB Stuttgart II 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in MSV Duisburg vs VfB Stuttgart II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.