Football · Germany 3. Liga · 25/10, 13:30

Prediction: TSV Havelse vs Saarbrucken

Team pages: TSV Havelse · Saarbrucken

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

TSV Havelse1.33

Saarbrucken2.25

1X2

21% 22% 57%

TSV Havelse Draw Saarbrucken

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

TSV Havelse 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLLDD

Saarbrucken 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDWDLW

Head-to-head

TSV Havelse 1–2–1 Saarbrucken (4 last)

TSV Havelse2-0Saarbrucken
Saarbrucken1-1TSV Havelse
Saarbrucken2-2TSV Havelse
TSV Havelse0-1Saarbrucken

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSV Havelse 1432 · Saarbrucken 1528

	TSV Havelse	Draw	Saarbrucken
Our model	21%	22%	57%
Market	21%	22%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Saarbrucken (rating 1432 vs 1528).
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TSV Havelse	Saarbrucken
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.3	2.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.5	3.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.00

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.77

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.45
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.49 ★
2	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +11’	4.33	4.00	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:31 +108’	4.43	4.39	1.61
20:08 +21’	4.45▲	4.49▲	1.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TSV Havelse 1–2–1 Saarbrucken

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Germany 3. Liga	TSV Havelse	2-0 HT 0-0	Saarbrucken
08/11/25 Germany 3. Liga	Saarbrucken	1-1 HT 1-0	TSV Havelse
18/12/21 Germany 3. Liga	Saarbrucken	2-2 HT 1-0	TSV Havelse
24/07/21 Germany 3. Liga	TSV Havelse	0-1 HT 0-1	Saarbrucken

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	10	8	1	1	27	12	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	10	6	2	2	27	14	20
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	10	5	3	2	18	13	18
4	Saarbrucken	10	5	2	3	24	17	17
5	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
6	Hansa Rostock	10	4	3	3	17	19	15
7	VfB Stuttgart II	10	4	2	4	17	18	14
8	Alemannia Aachen	10	4	2	4	15	16	14
9	FC Ingolstadt	10	4	2	4	13	15	14
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	4	2	4	11	13	14
11	Waldhof Mannheim	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
12	SC Preussen Munster	10	3	3	4	18	21	12
13	Wehen SV	10	3	3	4	12	15	12
14	Verl	10	3	3	4	15	19	12
15	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	10	3	3	4	12	18	12
16	Wurzburger Kickers	10	3	2	5	15	19	11
17	SV Meppen	10	3	2	5	12	17	11
18	Jahn Regensburg	10	2	4	4	20	19	10
19	SC Fortuna Köln	10	2	4	4	8	11	10
20	TSV Havelse	10	1	3	6	13	23	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSV Havelse	Saarbrucken
SV Meppen	1-1 D	6-1 W
Jahn Regensburg	0-5 L	1-0 W
SC Fortuna Köln	1-3 L	0-0 D
MSV Duisburg	1-2 L	2-4 L
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	2-2 D	2-1 W
SC Preussen Munster	1-2 L	3-3 D
Rot-Weiss Essen	0-1 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Saarbrucken (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSV Havelse

LLWLDLLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
13/10	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-0	2-2	3	8	D
10/10	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
25/09	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
15/09	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
12/09	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	1-2	2-2	3	8	D
05/09	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
30/08	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	1-2	3-2	5	7	W
15/08	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
08/08	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-3	6	5	L

Saarbrucken

WWLWLDWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
13/10	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	0-3	2-4	4	2	L
10/10	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
19/09	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	9	6	W
16/09	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	3-1	3-3	11	1	D
12/09	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	3-1	6-1	6	2	W
30/08	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-4	5	7	L
16/08	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	10	5	W
09/08	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	2-2	5-2	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSV Havelse vs Saarbrucken?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Saarbrucken win (57%). Probabilities: TSV Havelse 21%, draw 22%, Saarbrucken 57%.

How many goals are expected in TSV Havelse vs Saarbrucken?

The model expects 3.58 goals (TSV Havelse 1.33 · Saarbrucken 2.25), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in TSV Havelse vs Saarbrucken?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.