Football · Germany 3. Liga · 08/11, 16:30

Prediction: VfB Stuttgart II vs Verl

Team pages: VfB Stuttgart II · Verl

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

VfB Stuttgart II1.75

Verl1.73

1X2

38% 25% 37%

VfB Stuttgart II Draw Verl

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

VfB Stuttgart II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDDWWLD

Verl 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDDLLL

Head-to-head

VfB Stuttgart II 0–3–1 Verl (4 last)

Verl4-0VfB Stuttgart II
VfB Stuttgart II1-1Verl
VfB Stuttgart II1-1Verl
Verl2-2VfB Stuttgart II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VfB Stuttgart II 1484 · Verl 1474

	VfB Stuttgart II	Draw	Verl
Our model	38%	24%	37%
Market	38%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VfB Stuttgart II	Verl
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3	2.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.41
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Pinn 4.22 ★
2	2.70 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.54

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:27 +2’	2.10	3.70	2.70
20:39 +21’	2.40▲	3.70	2.35▼
12:29 +4’	2.35▼	3.60▼	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +23’	2.37	4.14	2.52
13:23 +11’	2.40▲	4.13▼	2.48▼
16:30 +61’	2.43▲	4.19▲	2.50▲
21:19 +97’	2.42▼	4.19	2.51▲
04:34 +44’	2.43▲	4.22▲	2.52▲
12:08 +25’	2.41▼	4.22	2.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VfB Stuttgart II 0–3–1 Verl

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Germany 3. Liga	Verl	4-0 HT 0-0	VfB Stuttgart II
23/08/25 Germany 3. Liga	VfB Stuttgart II	1-1 HT 1-1	Verl
19/04/25 Germany 3. Liga	VfB Stuttgart II	1-1 HT 0-0	Verl
23/11/24 Germany 3. Liga	Verl	2-2 HT 1-1	VfB Stuttgart II

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	13	9	2	2	36	18	29
2	MSV Duisburg	13	9	2	2	33	18	29
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	13	8	3	2	21	13	27
4	Wehen SV	13	6	3	4	26	17	21
5	FC Ingolstadt	13	6	3	4	19	19	21
6	Saarbrucken	13	6	2	5	31	26	20
7	Alemannia Aachen	13	6	2	5	19	19	20
8	Waldhof Mannheim	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
9	Hansa Rostock	13	5	4	4	22	22	19
10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	12	5	1	6	21	20	16
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	SV Meppen	12	4	3	5	16	17	15
13	VfB Stuttgart II	12	4	3	5	21	23	15
14	SC Preussen Munster	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
15	Wurzburger Kickers	12	4	2	6	17	24	14
16	Jahn Regensburg	12	3	4	5	22	21	13
17	Verl	12	3	3	6	17	26	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	13	3	3	7	13	29	12
19	SC Fortuna Köln	13	2	4	7	10	16	10
20	TSV Havelse	13	2	4	7	17	29	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VfB Stuttgart II	Verl
SC Fortuna Köln	1-0 W	1-2 L
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	3-2 W	1-2 L
SV Meppen	1-1 D	2-1 W
Jahn Regensburg	3-3 D	2-2 D
Wurzburger Kickers	2-1 W	2-1 W
Fortuna Dusseldorf	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VfB Stuttgart II

LWLLDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	1-3	3-3	3	8	D
24/10	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	10	6	L
16/10	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
13/10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	2-1	3-2	2	7	W
10/10	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
19/09	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	2-3	3-3	1	5	D
16/09	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-3	4	2	L
13/09	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
06/09	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	4	9	W
28/08	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	7	L

Verl

LWWDWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-4	10	4	L
24/10	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
18/10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
14/10	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-2	2-2	8	2	D
11/10	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
18/09	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-0	2-1	8	2	W
15/09	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
12/09	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
05/09	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VfB Stuttgart II vs Verl?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VfB Stuttgart II win (38%). Probabilities: VfB Stuttgart II 38%, draw 25%, Verl 37%.

How many goals are expected in VfB Stuttgart II vs Verl?

The model expects 3.48 goals (VfB Stuttgart II 1.75 · Verl 1.73), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart II vs Verl?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.