Football · Germany 3. Liga · 08/11, 19:30

Prediction: Wurzburger Kickers vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

Team pages: Wurzburger Kickers · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Wurzburger Kickers1.6

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II1.75

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Wurzburger Kickers Draw TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Wurzburger Kickers 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLLWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wurzburger Kickers 1459 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 1483

	Wurzburger Kickers	Draw	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wurzburger Kickers	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.79
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.91 ★
2	2.10 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.33

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 4.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:28 +4’	2.75	3.60	2.10
22:49 +3’	2.70▼	3.60	2.15▲
10:17 +6’	2.75▲	3.60	2.10▼
00:18 +5’	2.70▼	3.60	2.15▲
12:28 +18’	2.60▼	3.60	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:10 +18’	3.03	3.87	2.11
10:11 +2’	2.94▼	3.86▼	2.17▲
20:02 +33’	2.92▼	3.85▼	2.18▲
19:33 +124’	2.95▲	3.90▲	2.19▲
23:50 +3’	2.80▼	3.90	2.29▲
07:33 +40’	2.81▲	3.93▲	2.30▲
12:37 +9’	2.79▼	3.91▼	2.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	13	9	2	2	36	18	29
2	MSV Duisburg	13	9	2	2	33	18	29
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	13	8	3	2	21	13	27
4	Wehen SV	13	6	3	4	26	17	21
5	FC Ingolstadt	13	6	3	4	19	19	21
6	Saarbrucken	13	6	2	5	31	26	20
7	Alemannia Aachen	13	6	2	5	19	19	20
8	Waldhof Mannheim	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
9	Hansa Rostock	13	5	4	4	22	22	19
10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	12	5	1	6	21	20	16
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	SV Meppen	12	4	3	5	16	17	15
13	VfB Stuttgart II	12	4	3	5	21	23	15
14	SC Preussen Munster	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
15	Wurzburger Kickers	12	4	2	6	17	24	14
16	Jahn Regensburg	12	3	4	5	22	21	13
17	Verl	12	3	3	6	17	26	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	13	3	3	7	13	29	12
19	SC Fortuna Köln	13	2	4	7	10	16	10
20	TSV Havelse	13	2	4	7	17	29	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wurzburger Kickers	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
SC Fortuna Köln	2-1 W	2-2 D
SV Meppen	0-4 L	1-0 W
Waldhof Mannheim	2-0 W	1-4 L
Verl	1-2 L	2-1 W
VfB Stuttgart II	1-2 L	2-3 L
MSV Duisburg	0-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wurzburger Kickers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
24/10	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
17/10	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	8	6	W
13/10	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	0-2	2-2	7	8	D
10/10	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
18/09	Verl Germany 3. Liga	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
15/09	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
12/09	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-3	2-6	5	6	L
06/09	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	6	9	L
29/08	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	0-2	0-3	1	7	L

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
25/10	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-4	6	7	L
18/10	Verl Germany 3. Liga	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
13/10	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
10/10	MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga	2-0	2-3	4	9	L
19/09	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
16/09	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	9	2	W
13/09	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	2-1	2-2	6	2	D
06/09	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	9	8	L
29/08	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	2-0	5-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wurzburger Kickers vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II win (41%). Probabilities: Wurzburger Kickers 34%, draw 25%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 41%.

How many goals are expected in Wurzburger Kickers vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Wurzburger Kickers 1.6 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 1.75), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wurzburger Kickers vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.