Football · Germany 3. Liga · 25/10, 16:30

Prediction: SC Preussen Munster vs SC Fortuna Köln

Team pages: SC Preussen Munster · SC Fortuna Köln

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

SC Preussen Munster1.5

SC Fortuna Köln1.22

1X2

42% 28% 30%

SC Preussen Munster Draw SC Fortuna Köln

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Preussen Munster 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDLDLL

SC Fortuna Köln 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDDLWDLL

Head-to-head

SC Preussen Munster 3–3 SC Fortuna Köln (6 last)

SC Preussen Munster1-3SC Fortuna Köln
SC Fortuna Köln1-3SC Preussen Munster
SC Preussen Munster1-0SC Fortuna Köln
SC Fortuna Köln3-2SC Preussen Munster
SC Preussen Munster3-1SC Fortuna Köln
SC Fortuna Köln2-0SC Preussen Munster

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Preussen Munster 1467 · SC Fortuna Köln 1471

	SC Preussen Munster	Draw	SC Fortuna Köln
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Preussen Munster	SC Fortuna Köln
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.16
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.47 ★
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.18

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +4’	2.10	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:46 +336’	2.16	3.45	3.19
09:17 +56’	2.16	3.47▲	3.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Preussen Munster 3–0–3 SC Fortuna Köln

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/23 Germany Regionalliga West	SC Preussen Munster	1-3 HT 1-2	SC Fortuna Köln
06/11/22 Germany Regionalliga West	SC Fortuna Köln	1-3 HT 0-1	SC Preussen Munster
19/04/22 Germany Regionalliga West	SC Preussen Munster	1-0 HT 0-0	SC Fortuna Köln
01/10/21 Germany Regionalliga West	SC Fortuna Köln	3-2 HT 1-1	SC Preussen Munster
08/05/21 Germany Regionalliga West	SC Preussen Munster	3-1 HT 2-1	SC Fortuna Köln
25/11/20 Germany Regionalliga West	SC Fortuna Köln	2-0 HT 1-0	SC Preussen Munster

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	10	8	1	1	27	12	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	10	6	2	2	27	14	20
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	10	5	3	2	18	13	18
4	Saarbrucken	10	5	2	3	24	17	17
5	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
6	Hansa Rostock	10	4	3	3	17	19	15
7	VfB Stuttgart II	10	4	2	4	17	18	14
8	Alemannia Aachen	10	4	2	4	15	16	14
9	FC Ingolstadt	10	4	2	4	13	15	14
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	4	2	4	11	13	14
11	Waldhof Mannheim	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
12	SC Preussen Munster	10	3	3	4	18	21	12
13	Wehen SV	10	3	3	4	12	15	12
14	Verl	10	3	3	4	15	19	12
15	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	10	3	3	4	12	18	12
16	Wurzburger Kickers	10	3	2	5	15	19	11
17	SV Meppen	10	3	2	5	12	17	11
18	Jahn Regensburg	10	2	4	4	20	19	10
19	SC Fortuna Köln	10	2	4	4	8	11	10
20	TSV Havelse	10	1	3	6	13	23	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Preussen Munster	SC Fortuna Köln
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	2-3 L	0-1 L
Fortuna Dusseldorf	1-2 L	0-0 D
Rot-Weiss Essen	3-3 D	0-2 L
Saarbrucken	3-3 D	0-0 D
VfB Stuttgart II	2-1 W	0-1 L
TSV Havelse	2-1 W	3-1 W
Wehen SV	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: SC Preussen Munster (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Preussen Munster

WDLWWDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	2-0	2-3	4	4	L
14/10	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
09/10	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	2-0	3-3	7	5	D
20/09	Waldhof Mannheim Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
16/09	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	1-3	3-3	2	1	D
13/09	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
05/09	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
30/08	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	1-3	1-4	5	7	L
15/08	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
08/08	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	1-1	3-1	2	7	W

SC Fortuna Köln

LDWDDLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	VfB Stuttgart II Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
13/10	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
10/10	Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
25/09	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	1-0	3-1	1	4	W
16/09	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	0-2	0-2	9	7	L
13/09	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
06/09	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
29/08	Verl Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	1	7	W
15/08	Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
08/08	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Preussen Munster vs SC Fortuna Köln?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Preussen Munster win (42%). Probabilities: SC Preussen Munster 42%, draw 28%, SC Fortuna Köln 30%.

How many goals are expected in SC Preussen Munster vs SC Fortuna Köln?

The model expects 2.72 goals (SC Preussen Munster 1.5 · SC Fortuna Köln 1.22), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Preussen Munster vs SC Fortuna Köln?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.