Football · Austria Landesliga · 06/11, 18:00

Prediction: Red Star Penzing vs SV Schwechat

Team pages: Red Star Penzing · SV Schwechat

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Red Star Penzing2.11

SV Schwechat1.26

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Red Star Penzing Draw SV Schwechat

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Red Star Penzing 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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SV Schwechat 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Red Star Penzing 4–1–1 SV Schwechat (6 last)

SV Schwechat0-2Red Star Penzing
Red Star Penzing4-0SV Schwechat
SV Schwechat2-0Red Star Penzing
Red Star Penzing1-0SV Schwechat
SV Schwechat0-3Red Star Penzing
Red Star Penzing1-1SV Schwechat

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Red Star Penzing 1566 · SV Schwechat 1453

	Red Star Penzing	Draw	SV Schwechat
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Red Star Penzing (rating 1566 vs 1453).
H2H favours Red Star Penzing: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Red Star Penzing	SV Schwechat
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.00

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +5’	1.60	4.00	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Red Star Penzing 4–1–1 SV Schwechat

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Austria Landesliga	SV Schwechat	0-2 HT 0-1	Red Star Penzing
12/09/25 Austria Landesliga	Red Star Penzing	4-0 HT 2-0	SV Schwechat
28/03/25 Austria Landesliga	SV Schwechat	2-0 HT 1-0	Red Star Penzing
08/10/24 Austria Landesliga	Red Star Penzing	1-0 HT 0-0	SV Schwechat
08/09/23 Austria Landesliga	SV Schwechat	0-3 HT 0-2	Red Star Penzing
27/10/20 Austria Amateur Cup	Red Star Penzing	1-1 HT 0-1	SV Schwechat

Standings · Austria Landesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sportunion Mauer	11	8	3	0	29	7	27
2	Red Star Penzing	11	8	1	2	24	15	25
3	LAC Inter	11	8	1	2	23	15	25
4	Floridsdorfer AC II	11	7	1	3	23	14	22
5	TWL Elektra	11	7	1	3	24	19	22
6	Helfort 15	11	5	4	2	17	8	19
7	WAF Brigittenau	11	4	2	5	16	18	14
8	FV Austria XIII	11	3	4	4	16	15	13
9	First Vienna II	11	4	1	6	21	22	13
10	Slovan HAC	11	3	4	4	14	18	13
11	SV Schwechat	11	4	0	7	17	19	12
12	FC 1980 Wien	11	3	3	5	15	27	12
13	Hellas Kagran	11	2	3	6	16	21	9
14	Simmeringer SC	11	3	0	8	9	29	9
15	SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf	11	1	4	6	11	23	7
16	Post SV	11	1	2	8	19	24	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Red Star Penzing	SV Schwechat
Floridsdorfer AC II	1-5 L	1-2 L
TWL Elektra	3-0 W	2-3 L
Helfort 15	1-1 D	0-2 L
LAC Inter	5-2 W	0-2 L
Simmeringer SC	3-0 W	2-0 W
Slovan HAC	1-0 W	1-2 L
First Vienna II	1-0 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Red Star Penzing (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Red Star Penzing

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Post SV Austria Landesliga	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
23/10	WAF Brigittenau Austria Landesliga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/10	FV Austria XIII Austria Landesliga	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
11/10	Floridsdorfer AC II Austria Landesliga	1-2	1-5	2	4	L
02/10	TWL Elektra Austria Landesliga	1-0	3-0	7	7	W
26/09	Helfort 15 Austria Landesliga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
18/09	LAC Inter Austria Landesliga	2-0	5-2	–	–	W
11/09	Simmeringer SC Austria Landesliga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
04/09	Slovan HAC Austria Landesliga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
28/08	First Vienna II Austria Landesliga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

SV Schwechat

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Floridsdorfer AC II Austria Landesliga	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
23/10	TWL Elektra Austria Landesliga	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
16/10	Helfort 15 Austria Landesliga	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
10/10	LAC Inter Austria Landesliga	0-1	0-2	1	6	L
02/10	Simmeringer SC Austria Landesliga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
27/09	Slovan HAC Austria Landesliga	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
18/09	First Vienna II Austria Landesliga	1-0	2-5	–	–	L
12/09	FC 1980 Wien Austria Landesliga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/09	SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf Austria Landesliga	2-0	5-1	6	1	W
29/08	Hellas Kagran Austria Landesliga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Red Star Penzing vs SV Schwechat?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Red Star Penzing win (56%). Probabilities: Red Star Penzing 56%, draw 23%, SV Schwechat 21%.

How many goals are expected in Red Star Penzing vs SV Schwechat?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Red Star Penzing 2.11 · SV Schwechat 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Red Star Penzing vs SV Schwechat?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.