Football · Austria Landesliga · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: Sportunion Mauer vs Red Star Penzing

Team pages: Sportunion Mauer · Red Star Penzing

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Sportunion Mauer1.94

Red Star Penzing1.31

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Sportunion Mauer Draw Red Star Penzing

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportunion Mauer 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDDWW

Red Star Penzing 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLLWWD

Head-to-head

Sportunion Mauer 2–1 Red Star Penzing (3 last)

Sportunion Mauer4-2Red Star Penzing
Red Star Penzing1-0Sportunion Mauer
Red Star Penzing0-3Sportunion Mauer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportunion Mauer 1607 · Red Star Penzing 1539

	Sportunion Mauer	Draw	Red Star Penzing
Our model	51%	24%	25%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportunion Mauer (rating 1607 vs 1539).
H2H favours Sportunion Mauer: 2-0-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportunion Mauer	Red Star Penzing
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.7	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	3.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +5’	1.73	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportunion Mauer 2–0–1 Red Star Penzing

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/24 Austria Landesliga	Sportunion Mauer	4-2 HT 3-1	Red Star Penzing
29/09/23 Austria Landesliga	Red Star Penzing	1-0 HT 1-0	Sportunion Mauer
01/08/18 Europe Friendlies	Red Star Penzing	0-3 HT 0-2	Sportunion Mauer

Standings · Austria Landesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sportunion Mauer	12	9	3	0	31	8	30
2	Red Star Penzing	12	8	2	2	24	15	26
3	LAC Inter	12	8	1	3	26	19	25
4	TWL Elektra	12	8	1	3	25	19	25
5	Helfort 15	12	6	4	2	19	9	22
6	Floridsdorfer AC II	12	7	1	4	24	16	22
7	First Vienna II	12	5	1	6	22	22	16
8	FC 1980 Wien	12	4	3	5	19	30	15
9	FV Austria XIII	12	3	5	4	17	16	14
10	Slovan HAC	12	3	5	4	15	19	14
11	WAF Brigittenau	12	4	2	6	17	22	14
12	SV Schwechat	12	4	1	7	17	19	13
13	Hellas Kagran	12	2	3	7	16	22	9
14	Simmeringer SC	12	3	0	9	9	30	9
15	Post SV	12	2	2	8	23	25	8
16	SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf	12	1	4	7	12	25	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportunion Mauer	Red Star Penzing
Floridsdorfer AC II	2-1 W	1-5 L
TWL Elektra	3-2 W	3-0 W
Helfort 15	0-0 D	1-1 D
LAC Inter	3-3 D	5-2 W
Simmeringer SC	4-0 W	3-0 W
Slovan HAC	5-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sportunion Mauer (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportunion Mauer

WWWWWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Floridsdorfer AC II Austria Landesliga	0-0	2-1	6	0	W
31/10	TWL Elektra Austria Landesliga	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
24/10	Helfort 15 Austria Landesliga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
17/10	LAC Inter Austria Landesliga	1-2	3-3	6	3	D
09/10	Simmeringer SC Austria Landesliga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
03/10	Slovan HAC Austria Landesliga	2-0	5-1	6	0	W
26/09	First Vienna II Austria Landesliga	3-0	4-0	1	1	W
23/09	SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf Austria Landesliga	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
19/09	FC 1980 Wien Austria Landesliga	2-0	3-0	8	2	W
05/09	Hellas Kagran Austria Landesliga	2-0	3-0	5	3	W

Red Star Penzing

WWWDWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	SV Schwechat Austria Landesliga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
31/10	Post SV Austria Landesliga	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
23/10	WAF Brigittenau Austria Landesliga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/10	FV Austria XIII Austria Landesliga	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
11/10	Floridsdorfer AC II Austria Landesliga	1-2	1-5	2	4	L
02/10	TWL Elektra Austria Landesliga	1-0	3-0	7	7	W
26/09	Helfort 15 Austria Landesliga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
18/09	LAC Inter Austria Landesliga	2-0	5-2	–	–	W
11/09	Simmeringer SC Austria Landesliga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
04/09	Slovan HAC Austria Landesliga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportunion Mauer vs Red Star Penzing?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportunion Mauer win (52%). Probabilities: Sportunion Mauer 52%, draw 23%, Red Star Penzing 25%.

How many goals are expected in Sportunion Mauer vs Red Star Penzing?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Sportunion Mauer 1.94 · Red Star Penzing 1.31), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportunion Mauer vs Red Star Penzing?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.