Football · Danish Womens Elitedivisionen · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: HB Koge (W) vs AGF (W)

Team pages: HB Koge (W) · AGF (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.2Total

HB Koge (W)3.1

AGF (W)1.1

1X2

84% 9% 6%

HB Koge (W) Draw AGF (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

HB Koge (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWDDWW

AGF (W) 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

HB Koge (W) 6–0 AGF (W) (6 last)

AGF (W)0-2HB Koge (W)
AGF (W)0-3HB Koge (W)
HB Koge (W)2-0AGF (W)
HB Koge (W)2-0AGF (W)
HB Koge (W)2-0AGF (W)
AGF (W)0-1HB Koge (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HB Koge (W) 1588 · AGF (W) 1382

	HB Koge (W)	Draw	AGF (W)
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	91%	6%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HB Koge (W) (rating 1588 vs 1382).
H2H favours HB Koge (W): 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HB Koge (W)	AGF (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	0.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.3 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/10/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.6	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	1.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.04

X17.00

226.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.90

2 (+3.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.04	Bet365 1.04
X	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
2	26.00 → 26.00	Bet365 26.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +4’	1.04	17.00	26.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HB Koge (W) 6–0–0 AGF (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	AGF (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	HB Koge (W)
31/05/26 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	AGF (W)	0-3 HT 0-3	HB Koge (W)
05/04/26 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	HB Koge (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	AGF (W)
06/12/25 Denmark Cup Women	HB Koge (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	AGF (W)
04/10/25 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	HB Koge (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	AGF (W)
13/09/25 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	AGF (W)	0-1	HB Koge (W)

Standings · Danish Womens Elitedivisionen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HB Koge (W)	13	10	2	1	36	15	32
2	FC Nordsjaelland (W)	13	7	4	2	38	14	25
3	Brondby (W)	13	7	3	3	29	11	24
4	Midtjylland (W)	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	ASA Aarhus (W)	13	7	1	5	17	20	22
6	Fortuna Hjørring (W)	13	6	3	4	27	15	21
7	Kolding IF (W)	13	4	1	8	22	33	13
8	Odense BK (W)	13	4	1	8	8	25	13
9	FC Copenhagen (W)	13	3	0	10	16	39	9
10	AGF (W)	13	1	0	12	8	34	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HB Koge (W)	AGF (W)
Fortuna Hjørring (W)	2-1 W	0-3 L
Kolding IF (W)	3-2 W	1-2 L
FC Nordsjaelland (W)	2-2 D	0-5 L
Midtjylland (W)	4-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: HB Koge (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HB Koge (W)

WWLWWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Fortuna Hjørring (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
24/10	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-1	3-2	5	1	W
20/10	Brondby (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	1-1	13	2	D
04/10	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
26/09	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
19/09	Midtjylland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	4-0	9	1	W
12/09	Fortuna Hjørring (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
05/09	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-2	4-6	6	7	L
29/08	AGF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
19/08	Brondby (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	2-1	10	3	W

AGF (W)

LLLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Midtjylland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
27/10	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-4	0-5	5	2	L
17/10	ASA Aarhus (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-2	1-3	8	1	L
03/10	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
29/09	Odense BK (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-1	9	1	L
22/09	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
12/09	FC Copenhagen (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	4-2	7	3	W
05/09	Midtjylland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-2	1-2	1	0	L
29/08	HB Koge (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
19/08	Fortuna Hjørring (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-2	0-3	1	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HB Koge (W) vs AGF (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HB Koge (W) win (84%). Probabilities: HB Koge (W) 84%, draw 9%, AGF (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in HB Koge (W) vs AGF (W)?

The model expects 4.2 goals (HB Koge (W) 3.1 · AGF (W) 1.1), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HB Koge (W) vs AGF (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.