Football · Colombia Liga Femenina · 26/07, 21:00
Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs CD Real Santander (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
Independiente Santa Fe (W)2.37
CD Real Santander (W)0.37
1X2
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
Draw
CD Real Santander (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 57%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
CD Real Santander (W)
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
2–2–0
CD Real Santander (W)
(4 last)
- CD Real Santander (W)0-0Independiente Santa Fe (W)
- CD Real Santander (W)1-2Independiente Santa Fe (W)
- CD Real Santander (W)2-2Independiente Santa Fe (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe (W) 1565 · CD Real Santander (W) 1436
| Independiente Santa Fe (W) | Draw | CD Real Santander (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 82% | 15% | 4% |
| Market | 86% | 10% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (W) (rating 1565 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Independiente Santa Fe (W): 2-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Santa Fe (W) | CD Real Santander (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.6 | 1.9 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.6 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe (W) 2–2–0 CD Real Santander (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/25 Colombia Liga Femenina | CD Real Santander (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
| 07/04/24 Colombia Liga Femenina | CD Real Santander (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
| 25/03/23 Colombia Liga Femenina | CD Real Santander (W) | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
| 30/03/22 Colombia Liga Femenina | CD Real Santander (W) | 0-2 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
Standings · Colombia Liga Femenina
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional (W) | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali (W) | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 | America de Cali (W) | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 29 |
| 4 | Millonarios (W) | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 28 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Internacional de Bogota (W) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 22 |
| 7 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin (W) | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 18 | 19 |
| 9 | Orsomarso (W) | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF (W) | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 13 |
| 11 | Llaneros (W) | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 13 |
| 12 | Junior (W) | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 13 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 8 |
| 14 | Once Caldas (W) | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 7 |
| 15 | CD Real Santander (W) | 13 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 7 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto (W) | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 24 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | CD Real Santander (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Llaneros (W) | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Internacional FC de Palmira (W) | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Junior (W) | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Millonarios (W) | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| America de Cali (W) | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Cali (W) | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 0 L | 0 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05 | Llaneros (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Independiente Medellin (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Junior (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Millonarios (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Deportivo Pasto (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 20/04 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 28/03 | America de Cali (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 23/03 | Deportivo Cali (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 15/03 | Orsomarso (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
CD Real Santander (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05 | Once Caldas (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Millonarios (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Junior (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Cali (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 23/04 | America de Cali (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Atletico Nacional (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 30/03 | Llaneros (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 24/03 | Fortaleza CEIF (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 16/03 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs CD Real Santander (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe (W) win (84%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe (W) 84%, draw 12%, CD Real Santander (W) 4%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs CD Real Santander (W)?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Independiente Santa Fe (W) 2.37 · CD Real Santander (W) 0.37), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs CD Real Santander (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.