Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 15/11, 14:00

Prediction: AFC Humpolec vs FK Pelhrimov

Team pages: AFC Humpolec · FK Pelhrimov

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

AFC Humpolec1.42

FK Pelhrimov1.82

1X2

30% 24% 47%

AFC Humpolec Draw FK Pelhrimov

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Humpolec 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLDLLW

FK Pelhrimov 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLLLWD

Head-to-head

AFC Humpolec 1–2–1 FK Pelhrimov (4 last)

FK Pelhrimov1-1AFC Humpolec
AFC Humpolec0-1FK Pelhrimov
AFC Humpolec0-0FK Pelhrimov
FK Pelhrimov1-2AFC Humpolec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Humpolec 1477 · FK Pelhrimov 1484

	AFC Humpolec	Draw	FK Pelhrimov
Our model	29%	25%	46%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Humpolec	FK Pelhrimov
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	3.3 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X4.00

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +16’	3.00	4.00	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Humpolec 1–2–1 FK Pelhrimov

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Pelhrimov	1-1 HT 1-1	AFC Humpolec
13/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	AFC Humpolec	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Pelhrimov
10/03/24 Czechia 4. Liga	AFC Humpolec	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Pelhrimov
06/08/23 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Pelhrimov	1-2 HT 1-2	AFC Humpolec

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	14	12	0	2	48	15	36
2	Kravare	14	10	3	1	32	15	33
3	FC Vratimov	14	10	0	4	28	20	30
4	Hlucin	14	8	2	4	28	18	26
5	SK Zabreh	14	6	3	5	19	20	21
6	TJ Valasske Mezirici	14	5	5	4	29	24	20
7	SK Stonava	14	6	2	6	25	26	20
8	Opava B	14	6	1	7	29	29	19
9	Jiskra Rymarov	14	5	3	6	30	24	18
10	Pusta Polom	14	5	3	6	24	27	18
11	Frydek Mistek B	14	5	2	7	25	28	17
12	TJ Novy Jicin	14	4	4	6	20	25	16
13	FK Sumperk	14	3	5	6	18	21	14
14	Bridlicna	14	4	1	9	23	31	13
15	SSK Bilovec	14	3	4	7	14	29	13
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	14	1	0	13	15	55	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Humpolec	FK Pelhrimov
FC Spartak Velka Bites	1-4 L	0-2 L
SC Znojmo	2-0 W	0-0 D
FC Chotebor	0-0 D	4-2 W
Zdar nad Sazavou	2-1 W	0-4 L
FS Trebic	1-2 L	2-4 L
Sparta Brno	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Humpolec (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Humpolec

LLWDWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/11	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
25/10	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	2-4	4	9	L
18/10	Havlickuv Brod Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-4	3	4	L
04/10	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
27/09	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
20/09	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
13/09	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Sparta Brno Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

FK Pelhrimov

LWWWLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
31/10	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	4-2	–	–	W
25/10	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
17/10	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	2-4	2-4	–	–	L
11/10	Sparta Brno Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
03/10	Dosta Bystrc Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
27/09	FC Kurim Czechia 4. Liga	4-1	4-2	–	–	W
19/09	TJ Sokol Bedrichov Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	5-1	7	2	W
13/09	Velke Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
05/09	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Humpolec vs FK Pelhrimov?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Pelhrimov win (47%). Probabilities: AFC Humpolec 30%, draw 24%, FK Pelhrimov 47%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Humpolec vs FK Pelhrimov?

The model expects 3.24 goals (AFC Humpolec 1.42 · FK Pelhrimov 1.82), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Humpolec vs FK Pelhrimov?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.