Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 08/11, 10:15

Prediction: Velke Mezirici vs FC Chotebor

Team pages: Velke Mezirici · FC Chotebor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Velke Mezirici1.81

FC Chotebor1.52

1X2

44% 23% 32%

Velke Mezirici Draw FC Chotebor

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Velke Mezirici 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLDLDW

FC Chotebor 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLLDDL

Head-to-head

Velke Mezirici 0–1–2 FC Chotebor (3 last)

FC Chotebor2-0Velke Mezirici
FC Chotebor4-0Velke Mezirici
Velke Mezirici1-1FC Chotebor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Velke Mezirici 1467 · FC Chotebor 1484

	Velke Mezirici	Draw	FC Chotebor
Our model	44%	25%	32%
Market	45%	22%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Chotebor: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Velke Mezirici	FC Chotebor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.7	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	3.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +12’	2.00	4.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Velke Mezirici 0–1–2 FC Chotebor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Czechia Cup	FC Chotebor	2-0 HT 1-0	Velke Mezirici
01/05/26 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Chotebor	4-0 HT 3-0	Velke Mezirici
28/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Velke Mezirici	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Chotebor

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	13	11	0	2	45	15	33
2	Kravare	13	9	3	1	30	14	30
3	FC Vratimov	13	9	0	4	26	19	27
4	Hlucin	13	7	2	4	24	18	23
5	SK Zabreh	13	6	3	4	19	16	21
6	TJ Valasske Mezirici	13	5	5	3	27	21	20
7	SK Stonava	13	6	2	5	24	23	20
8	Opava B	13	6	1	6	29	26	19
9	Jiskra Rymarov	13	5	3	5	29	22	18
10	TJ Novy Jicin	13	4	4	5	20	24	16
11	Pusta Polom	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
12	FK Sumperk	13	3	5	5	17	19	14
13	Frydek Mistek B	13	4	2	7	24	28	14
14	Bridlicna	13	3	1	9	17	29	10
15	SSK Bilovec	13	2	4	7	11	28	10
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	13	1	0	12	13	49	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Velke Mezirici	FC Chotebor
Zdar nad Sazavou	2-1 W	2-0 W
FS Trebic	1-1 D	0-2 L
FC Spartak Velka Bites	0-2 L	0-0 D
FK Pelhrimov	0-5 L	2-4 L
SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou	3-2 W	0-0 D
TJ Tatran Bohunice	3-3 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Chotebor (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Velke Mezirici

DWLLWLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/10	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
17/10	Sparta Brno Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	1-5	2	5	L
11/10	Dosta Bystrc Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	4-4	2	3	D
03/10	FC Kurim Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
27/09	TJ Sokol Bedrichov Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
20/09	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
13/09	FK Pelhrimov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
06/09	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-2	10	5	W
28/08	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	3-3	2	5	D

FC Chotebor

LWDWDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FK Pelhrimov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-4	–	–	L
25/10	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/10	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-4	–	–	L
04/10	Havlickuv Brod Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	AFC Humpolec Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/09	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	4-2	0	5	W
12/09	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
06/09	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
28/08	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Velke Mezirici vs FC Chotebor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Velke Mezirici win (44%). Probabilities: Velke Mezirici 44%, draw 23%, FC Chotebor 32%.

How many goals are expected in Velke Mezirici vs FC Chotebor?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Velke Mezirici 1.81 · FC Chotebor 1.52), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Velke Mezirici vs FC Chotebor?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.