Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 08/11, 10:15

Prediction: FC Brumov vs Sternberk

Team pages: FC Brumov · Sternberk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

FC Brumov1.5

Sternberk2.71

1X2

19% 19% 62%

FC Brumov Draw Sternberk

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Brumov 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWLLLL

Sternberk 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWDLW

Head-to-head

FC Brumov 1–2 Sternberk (3 last)

Sternberk1-3FC Brumov
FC Brumov1-2Sternberk
Sternberk3-0FC Brumov

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Brumov 1414 · Sternberk 1523

	FC Brumov	Draw	Sternberk
Our model	19%	19%	62%
Market	19%	19%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 4.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sternberk (rating 1414 vs 1523).
H2H favours Sternberk: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Brumov	Sternberk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 3.7	2.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 2.2	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	3.3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	5.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.75

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.90

2 (-1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:21 +13’	4.75	4.75	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Brumov 1–0–2 Sternberk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Czechia 4. Liga	Sternberk	1-3 HT 0-2	FC Brumov
05/10/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Brumov	1-2 HT 0-1	Sternberk
16/06/18 Czechia 4. Liga	Sternberk	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Brumov

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	13	11	0	2	45	15	33
2	Kravare	13	9	3	1	30	14	30
3	FC Vratimov	13	9	0	4	26	19	27
4	Hlucin	13	7	2	4	24	18	23
5	SK Zabreh	13	6	3	4	19	16	21
6	TJ Valasske Mezirici	13	5	5	3	27	21	20
7	SK Stonava	13	6	2	5	24	23	20
8	Opava B	13	6	1	6	29	26	19
9	Jiskra Rymarov	13	5	3	5	29	22	18
10	TJ Novy Jicin	13	4	4	5	20	24	16
11	Pusta Polom	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
12	FK Sumperk	13	3	5	5	17	19	14
13	Frydek Mistek B	13	4	2	7	24	28	14
14	Bridlicna	13	3	1	9	17	29	10
15	SSK Bilovec	13	2	4	7	11	28	10
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	13	1	0	12	13	49	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Brumov	Sternberk
FC Strani	1-9 L	3-1 W
Bzenec	1-3 L	1-0 W
Tatran Vsechovice	0-3 L	1-6 L
Slavicin	1-3 L	1-3 L
TJ Sokol Lanzhot	0-1 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sternberk (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Brumov

DLLLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Strani Czechia 4. Liga	1-5	1-9	8	4	L
25/10	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
18/10	Tatran Vsechovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
11/10	Slavicin Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
03/10	TJ MILO Olomouc Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-2	4	11	W
27/09	TJ Sokol Lanzhot Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
20/09	FK Kozlovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	0-5	4	2	L
12/09	Hluk Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
06/09	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	1-4	2-5	3	2	L
30/08	SFK Holesov Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	3-3	6	2	D

Sternberk

WWLLWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SK Batov Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/10	SK Prostejov B Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-3	7	8	L
17/10	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	SK Krumvir Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	4-3	6	11	W
04/10	FC Strani Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-1	6	3	W
26/09	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
20/09	Tatran Vsechovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Slavicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
05/09	FK Nove Sady Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	6-0	8	3	W
29/08	TJ Sokol Lanzhot Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Brumov vs Sternberk?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sternberk win (62%). Probabilities: FC Brumov 19%, draw 19%, Sternberk 62%.

How many goals are expected in FC Brumov vs Sternberk?

The model expects 4.21 goals (FC Brumov 1.5 · Sternberk 2.71), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Brumov vs Sternberk?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.