Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 03/10, 10:15

Prediction: FC Kurim vs Velke Mezirici

Team pages: FC Kurim · Velke Mezirici

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

FC Kurim2.42

Velke Mezirici1.43

1X2

59% 21% 21%

FC Kurim Draw Velke Mezirici

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kurim 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDLWL

Velke Mezirici 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLDDWLLW

Head-to-head

FC Kurim 4–1 Velke Mezirici (5 last)

Velke Mezirici1-2FC Kurim
FC Kurim1-3Velke Mezirici
FC Kurim1-0Velke Mezirici
Velke Mezirici0-2FC Kurim
FC Kurim2-0Velke Mezirici

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kurim 1515 · Velke Mezirici 1459

	FC Kurim	Draw	Velke Mezirici
Our model	59%	20%	21%
Market	59%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Kurim (rating 1515 vs 1459).
H2H favours FC Kurim: 4-0-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kurim	Velke Mezirici
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.4	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	2.7 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.33

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:21 +6’	1.53	4.33	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kurim 4–0–1 Velke Mezirici

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Czechia 4. Liga	Velke Mezirici	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Kurim
20/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Kurim	1-3 HT 0-3	Velke Mezirici
26/04/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Kurim	1-0 HT 1-0	Velke Mezirici
22/09/24 Czechia 4. Liga	Velke Mezirici	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Kurim
23/07/23 Czechia Cup	FC Kurim	2-0 HT 2-0	Velke Mezirici

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	8	7	0	1	29	10	21
2	Kravare	8	6	1	1	21	11	19
3	Hlucin	8	6	0	2	19	11	18
4	FC Vratimov	8	6	0	2	17	11	18
5	Jiskra Rymarov	8	4	2	2	20	12	14
6	SK Stonava	8	4	2	2	16	11	14
7	Opava B	8	4	1	3	18	15	13
8	TJ Novy Jicin	8	4	1	3	17	16	13
9	SK Zabreh	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
10	Pusta Polom	8	3	1	4	12	16	10
11	TJ Valasske Mezirici	8	2	3	3	18	17	9
12	FK Sumperk	8	2	1	5	11	14	7
13	Bridlicna	8	2	1	5	11	19	7
14	Frydek Mistek B	8	2	0	6	14	20	6
15	SSK Bilovec	8	1	1	6	4	17	4
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	8	0	0	8	7	34	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kurim	Velke Mezirici
FK Pelhrimov	2-4 L	0-5 L
SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou	6-1 W	3-2 W
TJ Tatran Bohunice	0-3 L	3-3 D
Sokol Tasovice	1-1 D	0-0 D
Havlickuv Brod	3-1 W	1-3 L
AFC Humpolec	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Kurim (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Kurim

WWWLWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	FK Pelhrimov Czechia 4. Liga	1-4	2-4	–	–	L
19/09	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	4-1	6-1	4	4	W
12/09	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
05/09	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
29/08	Havlickuv Brod Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
22/08	AFC Humpolec Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
15/08	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	8-1	3	3	W
13/06	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
06/06	Sparta Brno Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-1	3	4	W

Velke Mezirici

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	TJ Sokol Bedrichov Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
20/09	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
13/09	FK Pelhrimov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
06/09	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-2	10	5	W
28/08	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	3-3	2	5	D
21/08	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
16/08	Havlickuv Brod Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
07/08	AFC Humpolec Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	12	2	D
13/06	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
05/06	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kurim vs Velke Mezirici?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Kurim win (59%). Probabilities: FC Kurim 59%, draw 21%, Velke Mezirici 21%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kurim vs Velke Mezirici?

The model expects 3.85 goals (FC Kurim 2.42 · Velke Mezirici 1.43), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kurim vs Velke Mezirici?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.