Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 11/10, 14:30

Prediction: AFC Humpolec vs FC Spartak Velka Bites

Team pages: AFC Humpolec · FC Spartak Velka Bites

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

AFC Humpolec1.27

FC Spartak Velka Bites1.57

1X2

31% 25% 44%

AFC Humpolec Draw FC Spartak Velka Bites

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Humpolec 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLLWDW

FC Spartak Velka Bites 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWDWDW

Head-to-head

AFC Humpolec 2–4 FC Spartak Velka Bites (6 last)

AFC Humpolec0-2FC Spartak Velka Bites
AFC Humpolec3-2FC Spartak Velka Bites
FC Spartak Velka Bites1-3AFC Humpolec
AFC Humpolec2-4FC Spartak Velka Bites
FC Spartak Velka Bites2-1AFC Humpolec
AFC Humpolec1-2FC Spartak Velka Bites

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Humpolec 1486 · FC Spartak Velka Bites 1526

	AFC Humpolec	Draw	FC Spartak Velka Bites
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Spartak Velka Bites (rating 1486 vs 1526).
H2H favours FC Spartak Velka Bites: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Humpolec	FC Spartak Velka Bites
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	3.7 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.80

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:17 +20’	2.88	3.80	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Humpolec 2–0–4 FC Spartak Velka Bites

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/08/26 Czechia Cup	AFC Humpolec	0-2	FC Spartak Velka Bites
13/06/26 Czechia 4. Liga	AFC Humpolec	3-2 HT 1-2	FC Spartak Velka Bites
08/11/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Spartak Velka Bites	1-3 HT 0-1	AFC Humpolec
03/05/25 Czechia 4. Liga	AFC Humpolec	2-4 HT 1-2	FC Spartak Velka Bites
28/09/24 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Spartak Velka Bites	2-1 HT 1-1	AFC Humpolec
02/06/24 Czechia 4. Liga	AFC Humpolec	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Spartak Velka Bites

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	9	8	0	1	33	11	24
2	Kravare	9	7	1	1	23	12	22
3	FC Vratimov	9	7	0	2	19	12	21
4	Hlucin	9	6	1	2	20	12	19
5	SK Stonava	9	5	2	2	20	12	17
6	Jiskra Rymarov	9	4	2	3	21	16	14
7	TJ Novy Jicin	9	4	2	3	18	17	14
8	Opava B	9	4	1	4	18	18	13
9	TJ Valasske Mezirici	9	3	3	3	21	17	12
10	SK Zabreh	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
11	Pusta Polom	9	3	1	5	13	18	10
12	Frydek Mistek B	9	3	0	6	16	21	9
13	FK Sumperk	9	2	2	5	12	15	8
14	Bridlicna	9	2	1	6	12	21	7
15	SSK Bilovec	9	1	2	6	5	18	5
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	9	0	0	9	8	38	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Humpolec	FC Spartak Velka Bites
SC Znojmo	2-0 W	1-1 D
FC Chotebor	0-0 D	0-0 D
Zdar nad Sazavou	2-1 W	2-2 D
FS Trebic	1-2 L	1-0 W
TJ Sokol Bedrichov	2-2 D	6-3 W
Velke Mezirici	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Spartak Velka Bites (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Humpolec

WDDLLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
27/09	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
20/09	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
13/09	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Sparta Brno Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
30/08	Dosta Bystrc Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	FC Kurim Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
16/08	TJ Sokol Bedrichov Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-2	8	3	D
07/08	Velke Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
13/06	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	3-2	–	–	W

FC Spartak Velka Bites

LLWWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	TJ Sokol Bedrichov Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	6-3	10	1	W
27/09	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
20/09	Velke Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	11	5	W
12/09	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	FK Pelhrimov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
30/08	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
23/08	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
15/08	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/08	TJ Tatran Bohunice Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	0-4	8	1	L
13/06	AFC Humpolec Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Humpolec vs FC Spartak Velka Bites?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Spartak Velka Bites win (44%). Probabilities: AFC Humpolec 31%, draw 25%, FC Spartak Velka Bites 44%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Humpolec vs FC Spartak Velka Bites?

The model expects 2.84 goals (AFC Humpolec 1.27 · FC Spartak Velka Bites 1.57), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Humpolec vs FC Spartak Velka Bites?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.