Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 11/10, 14:30

Prediction: Pusta Polom vs FK Sumperk

Team pages: Pusta Polom · FK Sumperk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Pusta Polom1.35

FK Sumperk1.66

1X2

31% 25% 44%

Pusta Polom Draw FK Sumperk

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pusta Polom 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWLLWL

FK Sumperk 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Pusta Polom 0–2 FK Sumperk (2 last)

Pusta Polom0-1FK Sumperk
FK Sumperk3-0Pusta Polom

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pusta Polom 1472 · FK Sumperk 1456

	Pusta Polom	Draw	FK Sumperk
Our model	30%	26%	44%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Sumperk: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pusta Polom	FK Sumperk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.7	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.80

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:17 +20’	2.88	3.80	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pusta Polom 0–0–2 FK Sumperk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Czechia 4. Liga	Pusta Polom	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Sumperk
12/10/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Sumperk	3-0 HT 1-0	Pusta Polom

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	9	8	0	1	33	11	24
2	Kravare	9	7	1	1	23	12	22
3	FC Vratimov	9	7	0	2	19	12	21
4	Hlucin	9	6	1	2	20	12	19
5	SK Stonava	9	5	2	2	20	12	17
6	Jiskra Rymarov	9	4	2	3	21	16	14
7	TJ Novy Jicin	9	4	2	3	18	17	14
8	Opava B	9	4	1	4	18	18	13
9	TJ Valasske Mezirici	9	3	3	3	21	17	12
10	SK Zabreh	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
11	Pusta Polom	9	3	1	5	13	18	10
12	Frydek Mistek B	9	3	0	6	16	21	9
13	FK Sumperk	9	2	2	5	12	15	8
14	Bridlicna	9	2	1	6	12	21	7
15	SSK Bilovec	9	1	2	6	5	18	5
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	9	0	0	9	8	38	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pusta Polom	FK Sumperk
SSK Bilovec	0-1 L	1-1 D
Bridlicna	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK Bohumin	1-4 L	1-3 L
SK Zabreh	2-2 D	0-1 L
Opava B	1-3 L	1-2 L
Frydlant Nad Ostravici	3-0 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Sumperk (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pusta Polom

WWLDLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Kravare Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-2	6	7	L
27/09	TJ Novy Jicin Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-2	8	12	W
18/09	Hlucin Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	1-4	3	2	L
13/09	SSK Bilovec Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/08	FK Bohumin Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-4	6	4	L
23/08	SK Zabreh Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-3	3	4	L
09/08	Frydlant Nad Ostravici Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
13/06	Jiskra Rymarov Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W

FK Sumperk

LWDLWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	SSK Bilovec Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	FK Bohumin Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
13/09	SK Zabreh Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	4	9	L
05/09	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Frydlant Nad Ostravici Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	5-1	9	3	W
23/08	SK Stonava Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	TJ Valasske Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
09/08	Frydek Mistek B Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	FC Vratimov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pusta Polom vs FK Sumperk?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Sumperk win (44%). Probabilities: Pusta Polom 31%, draw 25%, FK Sumperk 44%.

How many goals are expected in Pusta Polom vs FK Sumperk?

The model expects 3 goals (Pusta Polom 1.35 · FK Sumperk 1.66), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pusta Polom vs FK Sumperk?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.