Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 13/09, 15:30

Prediction: SSK Bilovec vs Pusta Polom

Team pages: SSK Bilovec · Pusta Polom

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

SSK Bilovec1.71

Pusta Polom1.41

1X2

44% 24% 31%

SSK Bilovec Draw Pusta Polom

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SSK Bilovec 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLWDLLLL

Pusta Polom 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWLDLW

Head-to-head

SSK Bilovec 3–2–1 Pusta Polom (6 last)

Pusta Polom1-0SSK Bilovec
SSK Bilovec5-3Pusta Polom
Pusta Polom1-1SSK Bilovec
SSK Bilovec3-1Pusta Polom
Pusta Polom1-5SSK Bilovec
Pusta Polom3-3SSK Bilovec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SSK Bilovec 1448 · Pusta Polom 1501

	SSK Bilovec	Draw	Pusta Polom
Our model	44%	26%	31%
Market	45%	23%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pusta Polom (rating 1448 vs 1501).
H2H favours SSK Bilovec: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SSK Bilovec	Pusta Polom
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.90

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:54 +3’	2.00	3.90	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SSK Bilovec 3–2–1 Pusta Polom

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Czechia 4. Liga	Pusta Polom	1-0 HT 0-0	SSK Bilovec
14/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	SSK Bilovec	5-3 HT 3-0	Pusta Polom
18/05/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Pusta Polom	1-1 HT 1-0	SSK Bilovec
13/10/24 Czechia 4. Liga	SSK Bilovec	3-1 HT 0-0	Pusta Polom
24/07/24 Czechia Cup	Pusta Polom	1-5 HT 1-3	SSK Bilovec
28/08/19 Czechia 5. Liga	Pusta Polom	3-3 HT 1-3	SSK Bilovec

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	5	5	0	0	19	5	15
2	Kravare	5	5	0	0	16	4	15
3	FC Vratimov	5	4	0	1	11	5	12
4	Hlucin	5	4	0	1	9	4	12
5	Opava B	5	3	1	1	11	8	10
6	Jiskra Rymarov	5	2	1	2	9	6	7
7	FK Sumperk	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
8	SK Stonava	5	2	1	2	8	7	7
9	SK Zabreh	5	2	1	2	6	5	7
10	Pusta Polom	5	2	1	2	8	9	7
11	TJ Novy Jicin	5	2	1	2	8	11	7
12	TJ Valasske Mezirici	5	1	2	2	8	10	5
13	Bridlicna	5	1	0	4	5	12	3
14	SSK Bilovec	5	0	1	4	3	12	1
15	Frydek Mistek B	5	0	0	5	5	15	0
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	5	0	0	5	4	18	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SSK Bilovec	Pusta Polom
Bridlicna	1-3 L	1-0 W
FK Bohumin	0-5 L	1-4 L
SK Zabreh	1-2 L	2-2 D
Opava B	1-1 D	1-3 L
FC Irp Cesky Tesin	3-0 W	3-2 W
Frydlant Nad Ostravici	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pusta Polom (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SSK Bilovec

DWDLWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Hlucin Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
29/08	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	5	1	L
23/08	FK Bohumin Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-5	2	2	L
16/08	SK Zabreh Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
13/06	FC Irp Cesky Tesin Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
07/06	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
31/05	Frydlant Nad Ostravici Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	SK Stonava Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
16/05	FC Vratimov Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-2	2	7	D

Pusta Polom

LLDWWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/08	FK Bohumin Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-4	6	4	L
23/08	SK Zabreh Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-3	3	4	L
09/08	Frydlant Nad Ostravici Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
13/06	Jiskra Rymarov Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
07/06	FC Irp Cesky Tesin Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
31/05	TJ Novy Jicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
23/05	TJ Valasske Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
17/05	FK Sumperk Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SSK Bilovec vs Pusta Polom?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SSK Bilovec win (44%). Probabilities: SSK Bilovec 44%, draw 24%, Pusta Polom 31%.

How many goals are expected in SSK Bilovec vs Pusta Polom?

The model expects 3.13 goals (SSK Bilovec 1.71 · Pusta Polom 1.41), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SSK Bilovec vs Pusta Polom?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.