Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 13/09, 16:00

Prediction: SK Zabreh vs FK Sumperk

Team pages: SK Zabreh · FK Sumperk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

SK Zabreh1.66

FK Sumperk1.55

1X2

40% 25% 35%

SK Zabreh Draw FK Sumperk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Zabreh 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWWDLL

FK Sumperk 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWDLWL

Head-to-head

SK Zabreh 1–2–0 FK Sumperk (3 last)

SK Zabreh0-0FK Sumperk
FK Sumperk0-0SK Zabreh
SK Zabreh2-1FK Sumperk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Zabreh 1510 · FK Sumperk 1459

	SK Zabreh	Draw	FK Sumperk
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Zabreh (rating 1510 vs 1459).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Zabreh	FK Sumperk
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 4	5 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:21 +40’	2.25	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Zabreh 1–2–0 FK Sumperk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Czechia 4. Liga	SK Zabreh	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Sumperk
26/10/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Sumperk	0-0 HT 0-0	SK Zabreh
27/07/25 Czechia Cup	SK Zabreh	2-1	FK Sumperk

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	5	5	0	0	19	5	15
2	Kravare	5	5	0	0	16	4	15
3	FC Vratimov	5	4	0	1	11	5	12
4	Hlucin	5	4	0	1	9	4	12
5	Opava B	5	3	1	1	11	8	10
6	TJ Novy Jicin	6	3	1	2	12	13	10
7	Jiskra Rymarov	5	2	1	2	9	6	7
8	FK Sumperk	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
9	SK Stonava	5	2	1	2	8	7	7
10	SK Zabreh	5	2	1	2	6	5	7
11	Pusta Polom	5	2	1	2	8	9	7
12	TJ Valasske Mezirici	5	1	2	2	8	10	5
13	Bridlicna	6	1	0	5	7	16	3
14	SSK Bilovec	5	0	1	4	3	12	1
15	Frydek Mistek B	5	0	0	5	5	15	0
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	5	0	0	5	4	18	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Zabreh	FK Sumperk
Pusta Polom	2-2 D	1-0 W
TJ Valasske Mezirici	8-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Zabreh

DLDWWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Kravare Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	TJ Novy Jicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/08	Pusta Polom Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	SSK Bilovec Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/06	TJ Novy Jicin Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	7-2	–	–	W
05/06	TJ Valasske Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	8-1	–	–	W
31/05	FK Sumperk Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	MFK Havirov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-4	1	4	L
17/05	FK Petrvald na Morave Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	2-2	–	–	D

FK Sumperk

WLDLLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Frydlant Nad Ostravici Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	5-1	9	3	W
23/08	SK Stonava Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	TJ Valasske Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
09/08	Frydek Mistek B Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	FC Vratimov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
07/06	FK Bohumin Czechia 4. Liga	2-3	3-6	–	–	L
31/05	SK Zabreh Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Jiskra Rymarov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
17/05	Pusta Polom Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Zabreh vs FK Sumperk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Zabreh win (40%). Probabilities: SK Zabreh 40%, draw 25%, FK Sumperk 35%.

How many goals are expected in SK Zabreh vs FK Sumperk?

The model expects 3.22 goals (SK Zabreh 1.66 · FK Sumperk 1.55), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Zabreh vs FK Sumperk?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.