Football · Japan Football League · 01/11, 05:00
Prediction: Criacao Shinjuku vs Grulla Morioka FC
Team pages: Criacao Shinjuku · Grulla Morioka FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Criacao Shinjuku1.57
Grulla Morioka FC1.12
1X2
Criacao Shinjuku
Draw
Grulla Morioka FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Criacao Shinjuku
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Grulla Morioka FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Criacao Shinjuku
1–1–2
Grulla Morioka FC
(4 last)
- Criacao Shinjuku2-2Grulla Morioka FC
- Grulla Morioka FC1-3Criacao Shinjuku
- Criacao Shinjuku0-1Grulla Morioka FC
- Grulla Morioka FC4-0Criacao Shinjuku
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Criacao Shinjuku 1543 · Grulla Morioka FC 1491
| Criacao Shinjuku | Draw | Grulla Morioka FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Criacao Shinjuku (rating 1543 vs 1491).
- H2H favours Grulla Morioka FC: 2-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Criacao Shinjuku | Grulla Morioka FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.6 / 0.2 | 1.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Criacao Shinjuku 1–1–2 Grulla Morioka FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/26 Japan JFL Cup | Criacao Shinjuku | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Grulla Morioka FC |
| 16/11/25 Japan Football League | Grulla Morioka FC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Criacao Shinjuku |
| 15/06/25 Japan Football League | Criacao Shinjuku | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Grulla Morioka FC |
| 21/05/23 Japan Cup | Grulla Morioka FC | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Criacao Shinjuku |
Standings · Japan Football League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criacao Shinjuku | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 22 |
| 2 | Verspah Oita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Vonds Ichihara | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Honda FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Reinmeer Aomori | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
| 6 | Okinawa SV | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 13 |
| 7 | Azul Claro Numazu | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Veertien Mie | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| 9 | YSCC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| 10 | J-Lease FC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 11 | Grulla Morioka FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 12 | Briobecca Urayasu SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 10 |
| 13 | Minebea Mitsumi | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 10 |
| 14 | Maruyasu Okazaki | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 6 |
| 15 | FC Tiamo Hirakata | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 5 |
| 16 | Yokogawa Musashino FC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Criacao Shinjuku | Grulla Morioka FC |
|---|---|---|
| Minebea Mitsumi | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Verspah Oita | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Reinmeer Aomori | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| YSCC | 4-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Azul Claro Numazu | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Maruyasu Okazaki | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Vonds Ichihara | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Criacao Shinjuku (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Criacao Shinjuku
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Verspah Oita Japan Football League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 04/10 | YSCC Japan Football League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 27/09 | Okinawa SV Japan Football League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 19/09 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan Football League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Maruyasu Okazaki Japan Football League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Vonds Ichihara Japan Football League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Yokogawa Musashino FC Japan Football League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/11 | Asuka FC Japan Football League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
Grulla Morioka FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | YSCC Japan Football League |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/10 | FC Tiamo Hirakata Japan Football League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Honda FC Japan Football League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 03/10 | Vonds Ichihara Japan Football League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 27/09 | Maruyasu Okazaki Japan Football League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 19/09 | Minebea Mitsumi Japan Football League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/09 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan Football League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Verspah Oita Japan Football League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Reinmeer Aomori Japan Football League |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/11 | YSCC Japan Football League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Criacao Shinjuku vs Grulla Morioka FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Criacao Shinjuku win (47%). Probabilities: Criacao Shinjuku 47%, draw 27%, Grulla Morioka FC 26%.
How many goals are expected in Criacao Shinjuku vs Grulla Morioka FC?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Criacao Shinjuku 1.57 · Grulla Morioka FC 1.12), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Criacao Shinjuku vs Grulla Morioka FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.