Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: Sokol Hostoun vs Hvezda Cheb

Team pages: Sokol Hostoun · Hvezda Cheb

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.48Total

Sokol Hostoun3.24

Hvezda Cheb1.24

1X2

81% 11% 8%

Sokol Hostoun Draw Hvezda Cheb

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Sokol Hostoun 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Hvezda Cheb 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sokol Hostoun 1571 · Hvezda Cheb 1407

	Sokol Hostoun	Draw	Hvezda Cheb
Our model	76%	14%	11%
Market	85%	9%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sokol Hostoun (rating 1571 vs 1407).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sokol Hostoun	Hvezda Cheb
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.4	1.3 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.3	1.3 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.08

X10.00

217.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.82

2 (+3)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.08	Bet365 1.08
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:03 +1’	1.08	10.00	17.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	14	12	0	2	48	15	36
2	Kravare	14	10	3	1	32	15	33
3	FC Vratimov	14	10	0	4	28	20	30
4	Hlucin	14	8	2	4	28	18	26
5	SK Zabreh	14	6	3	5	19	20	21
6	TJ Valasske Mezirici	14	5	5	4	29	24	20
7	SK Stonava	14	6	2	6	25	26	20
8	Opava B	14	6	1	7	29	29	19
9	Jiskra Rymarov	14	5	3	6	30	24	18
10	Pusta Polom	14	5	3	6	24	27	18
11	Frydek Mistek B	14	5	2	7	25	28	17
12	TJ Novy Jicin	14	4	4	6	20	25	16
13	FK Sumperk	14	3	5	6	18	21	14
14	Bridlicna	14	4	1	9	23	31	13
15	SSK Bilovec	14	3	4	7	14	29	13
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	14	1	0	13	15	55	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sokol Hostoun	Hvezda Cheb
SK Slany	2-1 W	0-3 L
SK Steti	5-1 W	1-1 D
Meteor Prague VIII	4-2 W	2-7 L
Chomutov	1-3 L	1-3 L
Banik Sokolov	1-2 L	1-3 L
SK Rapid Psary	1-1 D	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Sokol Hostoun (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sokol Hostoun

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
01/11	SK Steti Czechia 4. Liga	4-0	5-1	7	3	W
25/10	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	4-2	6	4	W
18/10	Chomutov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-3	7	6	L
10/10	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
04/10	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
25/09	Slavoj Vysehrad Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
20/09	Slovan Velvary Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	5-1	10	4	W
12/09	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	2	5	W
06/09	FK Brandys nad Labem Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	4-2	7	3	W

Hvezda Cheb

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FC Tempo Prague Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
31/10	FK Ostrov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	0	9	L
23/10	Slavia Karlovy Vary Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
17/10	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	6-0	–	–	W
10/10	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
03/10	SK Steti Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	0-4	2-7	3	1	L
19/09	Chomutov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
12/09	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-3	4	7	L
05/09	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sokol Hostoun vs Hvezda Cheb?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sokol Hostoun win (81%). Probabilities: Sokol Hostoun 81%, draw 11%, Hvezda Cheb 8%.

How many goals are expected in Sokol Hostoun vs Hvezda Cheb?

The model expects 4.48 goals (Sokol Hostoun 3.24 · Hvezda Cheb 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sokol Hostoun vs Hvezda Cheb?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.